i'm getting killed in most of my fantasy leagues, but i'm doing ok against the spread. last week i was 11-5, while fredo had another losing week of 9-7. for the season, i'm 20-11-1 (.645) and fredo is 16-15-1 (.516). i don't know how to count the ties so i just threw them out. anyways, here are this weeks picks. as always, point spreads courtesy of the caesar's/mirage sportsbook and home teams in bold.
PIT (+1.5) over MIA
yeah, miami is at home and the steelers aren't that great, but i think cowher makes it easy on roethlesberger and feeds the ball to staley, bettis, et. al. fredo seems to think that you can run on miami as well, although rudi johnson looked pretty pedestrian last week.
JAX (+6) over TEN
i don't think the jaguar magic has worn off yet. i'm not sure that they'll win, but i think that the defense is good enough to keep it at least close.
CLE (+3) over NYG
i don't get this line at all, but i guess the browns looked like dogshit last week (statistical note, jeff garcia had a passer rating of 0.00 last week). anyways, i suppose the giants are coming off the upset against the redskins, but i think that was a fluke.
BAL (-2.5) over CIN
my first non-upset pick, but i noticed that i don't have any of the home teams covering yet. dicey, i know. but fredo had a good point last week in that there are some games in reality you just stay away from. this is one of those games for me. although in my defense, ogden is coming back so that should help the raven's running game.
KC (-8) over HOU
everyone's writing about what's wrong with KC and with priest questionable, i suppose this be another game that i would stay away from unless i was sure of priest's availability. however, the texans are extremely underwhelming to me right now. KC's defense has gone from bad to worse, but i think the chiefs turn it around this week.
NO (+7) over STL
this line is really really confusing to me. the rams look awful and the saints look better than advertised. i suppose deuce being out hurts the saints, but i think aaron brooks will come through in a big way this week. if you have him on your fantasy team, start him.
MIN (-9.5) over CHI
i know this line is huge and we have minnesota coming off a loss and chicago coming off a win. but i think that the bears win last week was a complete aberration and daunte and company will roll this week.
PHI (-5) over DET
i love detroit this year, but philly looked great against the vikes on monday night. i know that minnesota had o-line problems, but it just seemed like there was always someone pressuring culpepper last week. i expect the same this week which will cause harrington to throw 20 ints.
ARI (+10) over ATL
don't get me wrong, i think that arizona is the worst team in the league, but 10 points this early in the season is just to much to pass up...
DEN (-10) over SD
...unless you're the chargers at mile high. ladanian will have a pretty good day. but not enough to counter the broncos running game which i'm hoping for fantasy's sake will run roughshod over the SD d-line. incidentally this is another game i wouldn't really bet on cuz i hate betting with jake the fake. i've been saying this for years but that guy is just an interception machine. and let's not forget which crappy pissant school that he went to.
IND (-5) over GB
my friend fredo said it best when he said that indy is going to teach green bay a lesson that they won't forget. by the way, i've decided that green bay won't make the playoffs this year.
SF (+10.5) over SEA
what's with all the huge lines in week 3? this bet i'm really not sure about. this will be the hawks first home game and sf looks like dogass, but i can't pass up that line.
OAK (-3.5) over TB
first, the bucs look awful. not that the raiders look great, but second, this will be warren sapp's revenge game. make this the $50 bet of the week (which i'm 2-0 so far this season).
DAL (+2) over WAS
i was telling anyone who would listen that aside from the first long touchdown, portis didn't look that great. the cowboys always play the skins tough and i think that they'll be able to bottle up portis again, thereby proving shanahan's genius.