9.29.2004

bobby the gook, week 4

what a crazy week 3. both fredo and i went 9-4-1 last week. i also hit my $50 bet (3-0), although it cost me dearly in fantasy as my roommate got a touchdown out of oakland's defense. not that it mattered as i got slaughtered again. anyways, the overall records stand as follows: me - 29-15-2 (.659), fredo - 25-19-2 (.568). i caught a break as despite only a mediocre week, fredo also had a mediocre week. however, i use the word mediocre in a relative sense, as overall, i think, i'm doing pretty well for myself. not that i can prove it or anything, but fredo and i both did really well on the four or five games that we really felt good about. but that's the thing about football betting, games in the first three weeks are pretty easy to call i think. week 4 is when you start seeing vegas do a much better job of setting the lines. and looking over the schedule, i hate this week. nothing really stands out to me or fredo, which is quite unfortunate since we'll be in vegas this weekend. anyways, it still provides me a chance to put my money where my mouth is. anyways, as always, point spreads courtesy of caesar's/mirage sportbook, home team in bold.

NYG (+7.5) over GB
is kurt warner in the midst of a story-book-jesus-inspired comeback? i really don't think so. but despite last week's offensive pyrotechnics at indy, i don't forsee it happening two games in a row. plus the pack's already lost at home this year, so expect a big game for ahman green and another decent day for godboy. green bay wins, but the giants will mount a comeback at the end to cover the line.

PHI (-9) over CHI
i know, how can you pass up the points? with jonathan quinn starting for the bears, that's how. in former cowboy news, the bears got so desperate that they signed chutch (chad huthchinson) to back up quinn. dark times ahead for da bears.

WAS (-3) over CLE
i told you portis wasn't any good. ok, maybe that's an overstatement, but cleveland can't be that bad can they? they did beat the ravens at home in week 1, and with a little mini qb controversey brewing in washington, most of the signs point to an upset. actually cleveland is that bad, and portis isn't. give me the 'skins. although how great would it be if the 'skins started 1-3.

NE (-5.5) over BUF
when is new england going to lose? not this week. it's a division game. belichick and company will be ready.

OAK (-2) over HOU
actually, now that i've typed this, i love this bet. we'll go for the double-double with the lions and raiders for my $50 bet of the week. oakland is going to be a lot better on offense with collins back there. he'll throw some picks on ya, but for all you fantasy managers, i think the raiders put up a lot of points this week.

IND (-4) over JAX
how can i bet against the jags? well, if the theory is that the jags are this year's carolina, the big difference is that the colts are a much better team than the buccaneers were last year. peyton looks damn near unstoppable doesn't he? i hate the guy, but i can't bet against him right now.

CIN (+3.5) over PIT
i still think that cinci is better than they've played so far. i think they'll win this one straight up. and i'll probably bet this one in vegas.

ATL (+4) over CAR
despite the offensive struggles, i think that falcons defense looks pretty damn good. i'm going to stick with my panther's superbowl hangover theory and the panthers struggle again.

NO (-3.5) at ARI
i don't get this line, and i may bet this game in vegas as well if the line is still under 4. the cards really stink by the way. really really stink. however, fredo thinks that the cards played inspired defense last week.

DEN (-3) over TB
denver has really underachieved offensively so far, haven't they? quentin griffin is killing me on one of my fantasy teams and i think i'm going to sit him against a crappy tampa bay team. however, as fredo is fond of saying, "in a game between two ordinary teams, take the favorite and the points". he is also fond of saying "patrick mackey is gay".

NYJ (-6) over MIA
miami stinks plain and simple. they have the absolute worst running game in the league. and they'll still be diststracted by hurricane problems.

SD (+3.5) over TEN
why oh why do i keep picking the chargers in these close lines? i don't know, mcnair is questionable and you figure that ladanian will rebound from his poor outing last week. that and san diego has some of the hottest women on the beach that i've ever seen.

STL (-4) over SF
along the lines of the chargers game, i'm going to go ahead and say that marshall will finally get 100 yds this week and couple of scores. i really want to pick san fran at home, but we have another "two bad teams" scenario.

KC (+4) over BAL
the chiefs haven't covered all year. which makes them exceedingly difficult to pick because with weapons like priest, gonzalez, and trent green, you always get this nagging feeling that they have to turn it around at some point. this game sucks. i'm staying away from it.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

didn't each of us go 9-4-1 last week?

Anonymous said...

dammit bob,

when two bad teams get together (and you have no feel for the game), take the points (meaning the underdog.) i don't think you listen to my feelings anymore. that said, give me:

gb over nyg - the giants have been killing me all year, so i almost went with them them this week. f the giants. they will not cover on the road.

phi over chi - i want no part of that chicago qb.

cle over was - two bad teams with a home underdog. take the points. also, if washington had a hard time getting their plays called at home...

ne over buf - they're both coming off a bye, so you would think they're both prepared, but only one of these teams is coached by son of parcells.

oak over hou - i don't have any feel for this game. i'll go with oakland and the resurgence of kerry von erich collins storyline. plus, i figure houston fired all of its magic bullets last week.

ind over jax - i know i said i would ride the jax train until it stopped, but the colts bandwagon looks good, too. this bet is also based on the premise that if jax is this year's carolina then they will lose big in the game after their "hey, we are for real" game. (last year carolina lost by 20 to tennessee after beating indy in OT.) far-fetched semi-logic, or r. williams-is-my-therapist-genius? we'll see.

cin over pit - if cincy loses this game, their season is over. if pit is smart, they will remember that they have a rookie qb and that they are going up against a piss-poor defense, so they should run the ball about 45 times. i'm guessing that pitt isn't that smart and that cincinnati realizes that they have to win this game, or failing that, lose by less than 4 points.

atl over car - "it's a trap!" - admiral akbar. trap, shmap, michael vick will not be contained. give me the points.

no over ari - i can never bring myself to bet on the cardinals.

den over tam - one might think tampa bay would rise up here and show some stones. i say they come out and show nothing. at some point in the third quarter, buc fans will have that feeling cowboys fans had a few years ago when they realized that they indeed sucked after being so good for so long.

nyj over mia - miami is godawful.

sd over ten - i talked myself into this one by reasoning that this is the beginning of the end for tennesee. i don't much like it, though. tennessee does not have a history of losing to bad teams, but i like san diego to keep it close.

stl over sf - i hate st louis and mike martz makes it a real pleasure to bet against them, but i believe san fran is totally crizzappy and has yet to bottom out.

bal over kc - jamal lewis might get 300 yards on monday night.

Bob said...

sometimes it amazes me that i've even got out of high school. fredo was right, we both went 9-4-1, better than mediocre. i've corrected the post. i gotta find a better system dammit.

Erik said...

Eh, dings -- is there any way you could show a summary of where the two of you football failures disagree? Which games do you call differently? It's too hard to scroll through and read the whole thing. Summarize, dammit!