i've already given you most of the inside dope on how well i did last week, but to refresh, i went 9-4-1 last week and fredo went 8-5-1 and the raiders f-ed us in the a. the season standings are me: 38-19-3 (.667), fredo: 33-24-3 (.579). when doing a regular handicapping thing like this, the general break even point is 55% (vegas gets a cut even if you win), and as we can all plainly see, both of us are in the black right now, one of us more than the other. in any case, it doesn't matter, because as we saw last week, vegas got alot better at setting the lines and life for the both of us will get more difficult from here on out. one more thing before i get on with the picks. it turns out i've been crediting the caesar's/mirage sportsbook for the lines, but in actuality i've been using the caesar's/hilton point spreads. a minor detail, but one that i felt that i ought to point out. as always, home team in bold.
MIA (+13.5) over NE
the worst team against the best team at home and i'm taking the points! what's my problem? well i figure that miami's defense is just really that good and they're not at the point where they'll tire out yet. of course, the pats are the pick to win, but 18 games is a long time and they can't all be blowouts.
PIT (-6) over CLE
never count on crappy teams to do well two weeks in a row. suggs looked ok last week for the browns, but he still won't be enough.
IND (-9.5) over OAK
did i mention that the raiders f-ed me in the a last week? four days later and i'm still walking funny from their violation of my anus.
ATL (-7) over DET
detroit would seem to be the trendy pick, but here's the deal. the falcons have played great despite the fact that vick has been slightly above average at best. i dunno, the lions seem like as good as any team to be the team that vick runs for 150 yds and 2 tds against.
NO (-3.5) over TB
while the saints didn't violate me in the way the raiders did, they certainly were standing in the corner jerking off while the whole thing was going on. however, i think the saints will be one of those teams that will play well at home against bad teams and lose on the road.
DAL (-4) over NYG
while the giant's win over the packers was probably my greatest bet last week, i don't think that they can keep it up. tiki's got to be worn down and i think that parcell's is a much much much much much much much much much better coach than coughlin. i must admit, the cowboys look in better shape than i thought they would be at this point in the season, so there's a good chance that i'm going with my heart here.
MIN (-4.5) over HOU
isn't it funny how vegas can anticipate which teams bettors will jump on after an impressive win. houston's got no chance here folks. none at all.
NYJ (-7) over BUF
bledsoe looked like dog ass last week didn't he? crucial mistake at the end of the game. anyways, the jets are better than i thought they were and it looks like c-mart isn't slowing down any. i bet the under on the win/loss line before the season at 8 and that's starting to look like a bad bet.
JAX (-3) over SD
the other great bet i had last week was the chargers over the titans. i guess the jags showed a little something against the colts but i'm not sold yet. i actually think that this game is more crucial in showing whether or not they are for real. i think that they need to crush the chargers to show me that they're legit. fredo seems to think the jags are a playoff team, so i'll go with that for now.
CAR (+5) over DEN
i noticed that i can never get the broncos right. i also noticed that i've done very poorly in not taking them at home. i don't know, just call this one a hunch. the broncos didn't look very good in their win over the bucs, and i figure that with the kinda heat that the panthers are going to bring, jake the fake will throw 4 ints.
SEA (-7) over STL
this will be a huge letdown game for the rams. the rams did finally start running the ball, but i figure that martz is going to f things up as usual and try to pass alot against a very good defense. i'm also guessing that we're gonig to really start to see the hawks offense light it up this week.
ARI (+1.5) over SF
let's think about this one for a second. the niners get slaughtered on espn on sunday night and the cards have an emotional upset at home. i guess it's hard to fathom the niners going 0-5, but i don't get this line at all. make the (gulp) cards my $50 bet of the week (3-1 so far by the way on the big bet).
BAL (PK) over WAS
i suppose that the chiefs upsetting the ravens was another great pick i had last week, but i figure that we've all gotten a little tired about being jealous of my football genius. jamal lewis runs for 200 yds and 3 tds before getting suspended by the league.
TEN (+3.5) over GB
i suppose the real whitey midwestern thing to do is say that the death of brett favre's brother-in-law will inspire a performance like the one he had monday night after his father died. but i'm going to bet against the magic here. did anyone see him on the sideline after the concussion? i've seen that look before on troy aikman. this is the beginning of the end for brett, and i feel a little bit bad for him cuz i'm almost sure now that the packers are not as good as the lions.
i thought that i liked this board better than last week's, but looking at it again, i'm scared to death of it. fredo's actually going to vegas again this weekend and no doubt i'll pout some more money down on the games, but i'm expecting a much worse result.