10.07.2004

bobby the gook, week 5

i've already given you most of the inside dope on how well i did last week, but to refresh, i went 9-4-1 last week and fredo went 8-5-1 and the raiders f-ed us in the a. the season standings are me: 38-19-3 (.667), fredo: 33-24-3 (.579). when doing a regular handicapping thing like this, the general break even point is 55% (vegas gets a cut even if you win), and as we can all plainly see, both of us are in the black right now, one of us more than the other. in any case, it doesn't matter, because as we saw last week, vegas got alot better at setting the lines and life for the both of us will get more difficult from here on out. one more thing before i get on with the picks. it turns out i've been crediting the caesar's/mirage sportsbook for the lines, but in actuality i've been using the caesar's/hilton point spreads. a minor detail, but one that i felt that i ought to point out. as always, home team in bold.

MIA (+13.5) over NE
the worst team against the best team at home and i'm taking the points! what's my problem? well i figure that miami's defense is just really that good and they're not at the point where they'll tire out yet. of course, the pats are the pick to win, but 18 games is a long time and they can't all be blowouts.

PIT (-6) over CLE
never count on crappy teams to do well two weeks in a row. suggs looked ok last week for the browns, but he still won't be enough.

IND (-9.5) over OAK
did i mention that the raiders f-ed me in the a last week? four days later and i'm still walking funny from their violation of my anus.

ATL (-7) over DET
detroit would seem to be the trendy pick, but here's the deal. the falcons have played great despite the fact that vick has been slightly above average at best. i dunno, the lions seem like as good as any team to be the team that vick runs for 150 yds and 2 tds against.

NO (-3.5) over TB
while the saints didn't violate me in the way the raiders did, they certainly were standing in the corner jerking off while the whole thing was going on. however, i think the saints will be one of those teams that will play well at home against bad teams and lose on the road.

DAL (-4) over NYG
while the giant's win over the packers was probably my greatest bet last week, i don't think that they can keep it up. tiki's got to be worn down and i think that parcell's is a much much much much much much much much much better coach than coughlin. i must admit, the cowboys look in better shape than i thought they would be at this point in the season, so there's a good chance that i'm going with my heart here.

MIN (-4.5) over HOU
isn't it funny how vegas can anticipate which teams bettors will jump on after an impressive win. houston's got no chance here folks. none at all.

NYJ (-7) over BUF
bledsoe looked like dog ass last week didn't he? crucial mistake at the end of the game. anyways, the jets are better than i thought they were and it looks like c-mart isn't slowing down any. i bet the under on the win/loss line before the season at 8 and that's starting to look like a bad bet.

JAX (-3) over SD
the other great bet i had last week was the chargers over the titans. i guess the jags showed a little something against the colts but i'm not sold yet. i actually think that this game is more crucial in showing whether or not they are for real. i think that they need to crush the chargers to show me that they're legit. fredo seems to think the jags are a playoff team, so i'll go with that for now.

CAR (+5) over DEN
i noticed that i can never get the broncos right. i also noticed that i've done very poorly in not taking them at home. i don't know, just call this one a hunch. the broncos didn't look very good in their win over the bucs, and i figure that with the kinda heat that the panthers are going to bring, jake the fake will throw 4 ints.

SEA (-7) over STL
this will be a huge letdown game for the rams. the rams did finally start running the ball, but i figure that martz is going to f things up as usual and try to pass alot against a very good defense. i'm also guessing that we're gonig to really start to see the hawks offense light it up this week.

ARI (+1.5) over SF
let's think about this one for a second. the niners get slaughtered on espn on sunday night and the cards have an emotional upset at home. i guess it's hard to fathom the niners going 0-5, but i don't get this line at all. make the (gulp) cards my $50 bet of the week (3-1 so far by the way on the big bet).

BAL (PK) over WAS
i suppose that the chiefs upsetting the ravens was another great pick i had last week, but i figure that we've all gotten a little tired about being jealous of my football genius. jamal lewis runs for 200 yds and 3 tds before getting suspended by the league.

TEN (+3.5) over GB
i suppose the real whitey midwestern thing to do is say that the death of brett favre's brother-in-law will inspire a performance like the one he had monday night after his father died. but i'm going to bet against the magic here. did anyone see him on the sideline after the concussion? i've seen that look before on troy aikman. this is the beginning of the end for brett, and i feel a little bit bad for him cuz i'm almost sure now that the packers are not as good as the lions.

i thought that i liked this board better than last week's, but looking at it again, i'm scared to death of it. fredo's actually going to vegas again this weekend and no doubt i'll pout some more money down on the games, but i'm expecting a much worse result.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

i have some ground to make up here, so give me:

NE over Mia - the pats just keep covering and the fins keep sucking. i can't imagine any game plan that would keep miami in this game. this should a shutout.

PIT over Cle - cleveland hasn't done jack bitch on the road this year. drew carey sucks.

IND over Oak - i worry a little bit about a let down for the colts and that kerry collins has finally figured out who his teammates are, but i will ride the indy train until it stops.

ATL over Det - vick and a hot defense against an unproven lions team sounds good, but giving up seven points seems like quite a jump for a team that was actually getting points against carolina at home last week. and yet, i go with vick and the d.

NO over Tam - the saints run hot and cold, but tampa bay is trotting out that fair haired son of a bitch rookie qb from texas. give me the saints. (although if major applewhite were qb...)

DAL over Nygiants - if dallas can't come off a bye week and tear kurt warner's head clean off, then something is wrong with the nfl. seriously, the giants have pissed me off all season. they are the worst 3-1 team in the history of sport. fuck the fucking giants. smile on me in a contest involving the giants for fucking once, gamblor. jeez.

HOU over Min - call me a mad scientist, but i smell something cooking in houston. i think they are starting to get on a lucky sort of roll that will allow them to stay in games that they used to be blown out of. i just feel a close game. (plus andre johnson will salvage my fantasy team's week with a couple of scores.)

Buf over NYJETS - i watched the entire jets game last week as they scratched out some velvet for me and came away thinking that they were lucky to have won, much less covered. meanwhile, buffalo practiced all week with the goal being, in coach mike mularkey's words, to "cover the goddamn spread."

Jax over SD - this was a tough one for me, but i talked myself into the jags in what should be a messy game. how did i talk myself into it, you ask? i slipped myself a roofie and played our song - open arms by journey. after that, i would agree to anything.

DEN over Car - carolina just keeps going downhill. i don't think they've looked good all year, and i don't see them scoring a lot of points this week.

SEA over Stl - i hate the rams. it should take about the entire first half before their offense realizes that the game has started. seattle should paste them just like they did the niners before the bye.

Ari over SF - doesn't everyone like the cards getting points here? this may be rock bottom for the niners.

Bal over WAS - after getting embarrassed last week on monday night, the ravens d should absolutely pistol whip the redskins who have been averaging 15 points/game against worse teams.

GB over Ten - whitey's own, brett favre, at home on monday night with a family death to avenge? yeee-haw! get ready, john madden, favre's balls need a good washing. (although if mcnair is playing, then - how do you americans say - all bets are off.)