back to my sucking ways...another bad week in the picks, pool, and fantasy football. fredo made up a lot of ground. it really pisses me off. anyways, last week: me - 6-8, season - 77-63-3 (.550); fredo - 9-5, season - 74-66-3 (.523). point spreads from caesar's/hilton, home team in bold.
BUF (+1.5) over STL
ummm, i guess i like home dogs this close. st louis won last week but weren't very impressive. and the bills just got trounced by the pats, but i think that mcgahee bounces back nicely here.
DAL (+8.5) over BAL
is baltimore that good? it looks like the cowboys are sticking with vinnie, which is the wrong thing to do from a franchise standpoint, but as far as covering the spread, it's the right move. despite getting killed by philly last week, the offense looked like they could move the ball just a little bit. true baltimore's secondary is better, but i don't think that enough points are going to be scored to cover this spread. and seriously, how many eggs can a parcells team lay in a row?
CLE (-1) over NYJ
i really have no feel for this game, so i'll take the home team.
PIT (-5) over CIN
did you see the gag that chad johnson had when he told people to bring money to cover the fine he's going to get for his touchdown celebration. it's a good gag, but he neesd to get in the end zone a little more often to really pull this kind of bs off.
CHI (+7.5) over IND
what can i say, the bears defense is really really good. sure their offense stinks, but i get the feeling that peyton won't play as good in the cold weather. he'll still throw a couple of touchdowns but i think that the bears offense will be able to run on the colts. this is not a very smart pick.
MIN (-7.5) over DET
culpepper is good isn't he? the vikes were one bad call away from beating the packers last week. anyways, remember earlier in the season when i said that joey harrington is going to nothing more than a serviceable quarterback. i was wrong. he sucks.
AZ (+2) over CAR
why can't the cards get any respect. that defense is good! emmitt is playing well! carolina did go nuts against the niners in the second half, but that all seems fluky to me. bad team, only one good half...yeah, i'll take the cards straight up here.
JAX (-3.5) over TEN
i just found out that some guy named greg taylor is going to be the short yardage back for the jags, which further puts my fantasy football team in hell since i have fred taylor. as for the titans, if the bears beat you, i'm not picking you again until you show me something.
TB (-8) over SF
not that the bucs are really that good, but they're definitely good enough to beat the niners. fifty bucs, get it? buccaneers...bucks...never mind (4-6 on the big bet).
NO (+4.5) over DEN
the saints are the most maddening team to pick in the league. inconsistency is what this team is all about. who knew that they could beat the chiefs last week? i don't know, i wouldn't bet any saints games, but if i did, i guess that homefield here works to their advantage.
MIA (+10) over SEA
man, screw the hawks. i think that miami's secondary will be good enough to cover the sorriness of the hawks recievers which will allow the linebackers to play the run. lower your expectations for shaun alexander this week if you have him on your squad.
SD (-4) over OAK
maybe this ought to be the fifty dollar game of the week, i don't know. however, there is one thing to beware. a few years ago, san diego started the year pretty hot, and then after the bye, they sucked ass. can drew brees who has done jack-bitch in his NFL career really keep this going? it's a contract year, so i guess why not.
ATL (-3) over NYG
hmmmmm.....i'm not sure how the falcons got to be 7-2, since i feel they've been inconsistent all year, but with eli starting, the atlanta d will shine here. this is the completely wrong move by coughlin by the way. i'm pretty sure that the hawks will be able to smell the desperation and make eli manning pay for the sorriness of his older brother.
PHI (-10.5) over WAS
the skins actually have the same problem (sorta) that the cowboys have, not that great a running game. ramsey is finally taking over for the alliterative brutal brunell, but that still won't make a difference in the running game.
HOU (+3) over GB
ughh, i don't know about this one either. either houston just out and out sucks and got lucky a few times earlier in the season or they're starting to make strides in the right direction. i'd like to think that david carr and andre johnson are good enough to justify the latter here. late-season-home-dogs theory in play here as well.
NE (-3) over KC
i know, i know, i just got through recommending that you take home dogs late in the season, but without priest holmes, the chiefs can't keep that horrible defense off the field enough. the pats roll here in a high scoring game.