1.17.2005

i don't know a goddammed thing about football

like i said before, no apologies for not blogging, but i will offer a psuedo-explanation. it's really weird, i thought that finishing my thesis would free up all kinds of time to blog about any and everything, but instead without something to procrastinate for, i find that i just haven't been motivated to blog much. procrastination is a strange thing and something that someone should perhaps do some real research on to find out what motivates us to procrastinate (huh?) and maybe even the social function of procrastination. or maybe it's because i've been dreading having to write this post. as you are all well aware, the NFL regular season ended two weeks ago, and i haven't posted the final standings in mine and fredo's little pick-em derby. well, here we go. week 17 results: me 5-10, season 130-117-7 (.526); fredo 9-6. season 131-116-7 (.530).

dammit. fredo had a great last week, and i had a terrible one and it cost me the derby. fredo wins by one freakin' game. mostly because SF couldn't muster one more f-in point to cover the stupid spread. in any case, this concludes our little experiment with betting on football. as you can plainly see, fredo and i both finished under 55% which is generally considered the break even point for betting on football games. if we had bet five bucks on each game, i think fredo and i would have been out around 50 bucks. on the one hand, this means that if i had actually bet real money, it would have resulted in a monetary loss. on the other hand, fifty bucks seems to a reasonable price for something that made the season a lot more fun for me, fredo, and consequently you. i'm still wondering if i should bet real money next year. i'm definitely going to start playing the local pool, where i'm pretty sure that fredo and i would've have finished in the top 5 meaning that we would have won something overall. anyways, here are some things that we have learned from this season.

1) betting early in the season is a hell of a lot easier than later in the season. seriously the spreads were a ridiculously easy read weeks 1-5. after that, vegas does what it always does and figures the whole damn thing out. remember kids, gamblor knows all.

2) there are really only about five or six games that you want to bet on each week after week 5. seriously, vegas gets so good that most of the games are simply a 50-50 proposition based on the current football knowledge.

3) betting in the last week is dumb. there's no way to reliable know who is going to take it seriously and who isn't.

4) never bet against bill bellichick. the pats were awesome against the number this year. so were the chargers, but does "never bet against marty shottenhiemer" sound like good advice to you? bellichick is a modern day bill parcells.

5) fredo and i share almost completely the same opinions about football. there were never more than 3 or 4 games that we differed on each week. there's a one difference game in our records. which leads us to...

6) fredo and i know more than most people about football, but not enough where we should quit our jobs. if we had taken lesson 1 and 2 to heart, i think that we would have done quite well for ourselves.

7) gamblor knows all. by finishing above .500, i will have to continue to make extra trips to vegas during the fall, which encourages me to spend all sorts of money in vegas. stats tell us that in addition to losing money in football (50 bucks if i went every week and bet every game), i'll also probably lose money at the tables.

8) jake plummer blows (but we already knew that).

anyways, it's been an interesting playoffs so far. the first week was super crazy with the home team losing 3 of the games. and this week, i could've sworn that the colts were going to break through, but as fredo put it, as soon as i turned on the television and saw that it was snowing in new england, we knew peyton was done. anyways, fredo's and mine pre playoff predictions were the same, pittsburgh-atlanta in the superbowl with pittsburgh winning it. however, with lesson 4 in hand, we know that new england has a pretty good chance of winning. they're favored by 4 right now. i guess that there's a part of me that just doesn't want the patriots to win 3 super bowls in four years...cuz the last team to do that was...anyways, i still think that pittsburgh wins next week (well, at least that's what i think right now) and i'm pretty sure that atlanta beats philly (no reason to think that the same team from last year won't lose again in the conference championship. T.O. might have been a reason, but since there's no T.O...), atlanta and michael vick will win the big one. however, lesson 4 tells us...don't bet against the pats. that's really wishy-washy, i know, but i'll go with the falcons right now.

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