howdy folks, hope everyone enjoyed their weekend of preseason football. i know i did. today we're gonna go through the AFC and NFC south season wins over/under. numbers courtesy of betonsports.com.
HOU - 7.5: over(even) under(-140)
vegas really seems to love houston for some reason. and of course, this makes sense, since they have at least one stud at each skill position. david carr started the year pretty good last year, but pretty much blew down the stretch. andre johnson, who in my opinion is the second most talented wide reciever in the league behind randy moss, was a little disappointing. the only guy that really delivered was dominick davis. i just don't know about the defense though. i still haven't heard of any of those guys and maybe they'll have a good year, but you usually have to have at least a few known commodities for it to come together. i think the texans will be better this year. playng indy twice a year isn't going to help. there's a stretch in their schedule that does at indy, and them home against KC and then again against STL. i wonder if how many points are going to be scored for those three games. i got to go with vegas here and take the under.
IND - 11.5: over (-130) under (-110)
everybody loves indy this year. after peyton's record breaking year, this seems to be the last year in the colts window with edgerrin james all but gone at the end of the season. while their defense is still probably a little suspect, they do have a couple of studs, particularly dwight freeney who is just a monster every time i've seen him play. of course, the thing about this number is that it is tied with NE for the highest in the league. are the colts good for 12 wins? their schedule starts off a little tough at baltimore and then at home against JAX, but after then, they have 5 pretty damn winable games with CLE, TEN, SF, STL, and HOU. so let's say they start 7-1, i think that 12 is very doable. i hate peyton, but give me the over.
JAX - 8.5: over(-130) under(-110)
love byron leftwich, hate fred taylor. halfway decent defense, but unlike most people, i think that jack del rio didn't do such a great job last season. i think that the schedule measures up pretty easily, but there's just not enough firepower for a winning season. give me the under.
TEN - 6.5: over(even) under(-140)
seriously, i hate this team. mcnair is old and is not good for more than 9 games. travis henry is ok, but he's obviously no willis mcgahee, and drew bennet, well this guy is as overrated as they come. he busted out for three games last season, but other than that, he didn't do jack. tough times for the titans for years to come. under all the way.
ATL - 9.5: over(even) under(-140)
maybe i'm colored by my mancrush on michael vick, but i really don't know where vegas is coming with this one. their defense was really good last year and they're all young, and i know michael vick hasn't put up the numbers that everyone's expecting, but if you check his record as a starting qb, it's pretty damn good. i could make an argument about how vick and tom brady are in similar situations, but everyone loves brady and everyone picks on vick, but that's another post. i like this team a lot and i think they're in the super bowl this year. give me the over.
CAR - 9.5: over(even) under(-140)
if you notice this is the same line for the falcons. it seems like to me vegas is asking you who you think will win the NFC south this year. i love this team, especially julius peppers, who may soon supplant vick as my NFL mancrush. who doesn't get turned on by a lineman that can run like a defensive back? anyways, i have to stick with my prediction that ATL wins the division so i suppose i should take the under, but i think that the NFC south will be that division with two studly teams where the second place team would have won a bunch of other divisions. give me the over.
NO - 6.5: over(-130) under(-110)
aaron brooks is the single most frustrating fantasy player in the history of ever. they wrapped up duece for a long time and a big contract and joe horn is always a dependable player, so i guess vegas is saying, "what's not to like?" i got a bad feeling about this team. especially with the hurricane ripping the roof off of the superdome. give me the under.
TB - 7: over(-125) under(-115)
brian griese eh? yeah, i just don't see it. this team sucks. a rookie running back, an aging defense, and one reciever who had a pretty decent season last year, but doesn't look like an elite reciever to me. give me the under here.
ok, there you go, next time out, we'll do the NFC east including a prediction for the greatest team in america, the dallas cowboys and my season prognosis for them and the wacky NFC east.