9.01.2005

the return of bobby the gook, preseason part 4

this is may be our last post for the preseason or it might not be. i'll go through the over/unders for the east divisions, and then if i time, i'll post some other interesting season props, that i've seen on various websites. as before, the numbers are from betonsports.com.

AFC east
BUF - 8: over(-120), under(-120)
everyone loves buffalo with mcgahee toting the rock and a really good defense. i don't like jp losman, and i don't like the chances of mcgahee re-injuring himself. i also don't like a six week stretch that goes at OAK, at NE, bye, KC, at SD, CAR. under.

MIA - 6: over(-130,) under(-110)
i happen to think that nick saban is overrated. i also happen to think that jay fiedler might be the worst quarterback ever. there are just too many problems here, rookie RB, average defense, and a fairly tough schedule. i'll take the under here as well.

NE - 11: over(-110), under(-130)
i've already put money on this one in vegas. but i'm starting to feel a little uneasy with this one. pro: i hate this division, belichick. cons: the defense will miss ty law more than they think, 3 in a row just doesn't seem doable. my logic says that the cons outweigh the pros, but as we learned last year, never bet against the smartest man in football. that and this division is going to just plain suck this year so NE runs away with it. over.

NYJ - 9: over(140), under(even)
this number seems high to me. they did well last year, but surely that was c-mart's last gasp. word outof training camp is that pennington doesn't look very good at all and is having trouble throwing the long ball. couple that with a bunch of receivers who have never really done anything and i don't see a very good team. i took the under last year in vegas and got burned, but i don't see back to back good seasons for the jets, and that adds up to the under.

NFC east
NYG - 6.5: over(-130) under(-110)
crap...good number...let's see, i think the addition of burress is huge. so that's gonna help eli a whole lot this year. tiki barber's numbers last year were a fluke, and i don't see him having that kind of year. their schedule starts off a little easy before getting really tough down the stretch. i think they'll start really hot, like 4-2 or 5-1, and then suck the rest of the year, but they'll be able to eke out at least a couple of more wins. i'll take the over.

PHI - 11: over(even) under(-140)
looks like vegas thinks that philly can't recover from the T.O. debacle. i know he looked good in the first pre-season game he played, but it there any question that he's going to blow up at some point in the season? and won't that cost the team dearly in terms of wins? also doesn't losing corey simon really really hurt. i already have 7 teams winning ten games which already sounds like too many to me. i definitely can't see 8 teams winning ten games. under.

WAS - 7.5: over(-120) under(-120)
i was so effin' right about clinton portis last year. he was completely exposed i thought. he ended up having pretty good numbers, but every time i saw him, he and the offensive line were really struggling. everyone is saying this year that gibbs is going to change the system to favor portis' running style, but i say, you are what you are and portis is a serviceable back, but not a top 10 back. oh, and some a-hole named patrick ramsey is their qb with another older a-hole named mark brunell backing him up. gibbs gets publicly disemboweled by danny snyder this year. this team is so not going to win 8 games...under.

DAL - 8.5: over(-150) under(+110)
obviously, this is the one i have put the most thought into. it seems that vegas loves the cowboys to win 9 games. everything i've seen in preseason and read about the team says that the secondary doesn't look good at all. drew bledsoe? come on! that guy is older than dick cheney. but here's the deal, i love julius jones. i mean i love him, i love him, i love him. the more i see him run, the more i think that this guy is the second coming of tony dorsett, a small speedy guy that can get to the holes between the tackles real fast. the organization has also done a real good job of acquiring a whole stable of pretty good backs to make sure that he doesn't wear down over the season. i also am drooling at the prospect of demarcus ware being the second coming of lawrence taylor. the cowboys haven't had a guy that could rush the passer like this since charles haley. lastly, parcells has never ever had back to back losers. if there's one game where goofy historical trends like this hold up, it's football. do you remember the last time the cowboys looked this lousy in preseason? two years ago and they won ten games. i admit that this is an extremely questionable pick that could very well be fueled by my blind loyalty. i'm not going to say that they're gonna win the division, but i predict 9-6, a wild card berth and the over.

i think that instead of doing the season props, i'm going to analyze my over/under picks in terms of what it means for the overall season. things like comparing AFC vs. NFC and overs vs. unders and with vegas vs. against vegas and things like that. until then, let me hear from you about the dallas pick. i know that some of you will have things to say.

1 comment:

alfredo said...

Buffalo(8) - under. everything you said, but especially the part about the quarterback being cross-dressing failure.

Miami(6) - under. i think saban will do just fine in the pros, just not this year.

New England (11) - over. fuck it. just go with it until it stops.

New York Jets (9) - over. they seem to be a popular dark horse, but i'll say over anyway.

New York Giants (6.5) - under. fuck the giants; i hate them. i already have this bet in vegas, too, so eli manning needs to break a leg or drown or something.

philadelphia (11) - under. fuck the eagles in the head.

washington (7.5) - under. fuck the goddamn redskins. joe fucking theismann picked the redskins to go to the super bowl, by the way. what a complete son of a bitch.

dallas (8.5) - over all the way, and take it to the bank. i know drew bledsoe seems old, but he's only 33. do you know who else was 33 when he won the super bowl against sin and death? jesus h. christ, that's who.