10.06.2005

bobby the gook, week 5

things just keep getting worse. not only has it taken me forever for me to get my computer up and running again, but my ability to understand the nfl is diminishing. i suppose that there might be some kind of correlation between the two, you know, not having the tools to do the adequate kind of research that i normally do. last week was an unmitigated disaster in vegas. of the 11 bets that i made i hit exactly 2. usually when i go to vegas, i suck at the tables and it's football that bails me out. this time however, i sucked at football and i had to rely on a last minute miracle craps session to bail me out. gamblor is a fickle god, i must remember to be more mindful of praising him correctly. anyways, let's see last week, i got 5 games right, but minus one for missing the big bet, and minus one for getting only 1 of the three over/unders right. which gives me two godammed points. fredo on the other hand, got six games, minus 1 for missing the big bet, and fredo only got 1 out of the three over unders right as well for a total of 4 points. so for the season, fredo is starting to put some distance on me as he leads, 20-14. anyways, numbers courtesy of caesar's palace, home team in caps.

chi (+3) over CLE
i don't know anything about these teams. i know that the bears' offense sucks and that the browns still remind me of an expansion team. f, just give me the points.

GB (-3) over no
the packers covering last week was one of the few bright spots for my picks last week. and the saints played well against a horrible bills team. but those bright spots are going to be far and few between for the saints. green bay should be able to win this one at home.

tb (-3.5) over NYJ
i refuse to bet with vinnie testaverdee as the jets qb. the bucs may be in trouble if cadillac is not at full strength. the bucs were one of the teams that really effed me in the a last week, let's hope that they don't do it again.

sea (+3) over STL
both of these teams have been generally disappointing this year. the hawks have a better defense than the rams and apparently that rams offensive line is a disaster. bulger gets killed in this one.

ATL (-3) over ne
yeah, i effing nailed the chargers/pats last week. the chargers really simply just had their way with the pats. atlanta's running attack isn't LT, but it's still pretty good. i think we'll look back at last week's chargers/pats game as the beginning of the end for the pats.

mia (+3) over BUF
i can't figure this line out. the bills looked like crap last week and miami seems to be overachieving this year so far. trap? i'll just go with the better team here.

DET (-1.5) over bal
picking the lions always makes me nervous. this is simply a must win for the lions. after last week's tough loss (but they did cover dammit), do they rally round the flag or do they crawl into a shell and die. win and they'll be fighting for the division at the end of theyear, lose and millen gets fired before january. and baltimore, who the f knows what's going on over there with that offense. jamal lewis has been a real non factor this season, so i'll go with youth here.

ten(+3) over HOU
the only reason last week's game was so close was the 923 penalties called on the bengals last week. the texans are dreadful. fisher is a good enough coach to see the problems that the texans are having. look for the titans to roll here and give me fifty bucks on this game.

SFO (+14.5) over ind
just too many points here to pass up. indy rolled last week, but i really do think that dungy is going to a more conservative offense.

ARI (+3) over car
i hate this game. stay away from this one i say.

DAL (+3) over phi
i also hate the fucking philadelphia eagles. roy williams is going to light up t.o. again and hopefully end his season like he did last year. this is actually a tough call, because i still have no feel for what kind of team the cowboys are. you could make the argument that they're just a few fluke plays away from being 4-0. you could also say that they they've been lucky in their wins and ought to be 0-4.

DEN (-7) over was
speaking of teams that i fucking hate, the skins simply can't go 4-0. if it happens, i'm going to blow my brains out. it just can't happen. also, jake plummer still sucks...defense is what the broncos are doing right.

cin (+3) over JAX
this may seem like some sort of trap, but as i mentioned before, the only reason that the bengals didn't cover was the officiating last week. and with the performance that the jags put up last week, i'm starting to think that they're regressing to what i thought they'd be before the season, a 7-9 team.

pit (+3) over SD
i know, i know, the chargers looked awesome last week and if the patriots beat the steelers, then the chargers should beat the steelers. i've always hated that line of reasoning. here's the deal. the pittsburgh defense is well coached and they will have a plan to contain the mighty mighty lt. he'll still get his yards, but i think brees can't keep it going.

bonus props: my beloved arizona wildcats are facing the mighty trojans of USC this weekend. the line right now is USC (-38). who can resist that line. so i'll give three props here, 1 point apiece. #1 - will USC cover? #2 - reggie bush has been averaging 209 all purpose yards a game, i'll set the over/under for this statistic at 215 yds. lastly, for #3 - reggie bush and lendale white both have pretty crazy rushing stats. the last prop is who will have more rushing yards on saturday. i'll set the line at bush (-25). like last week, it's minus 1 for wrong bets and a 2 po0int bonus if you can get all three of them right. hell, i'll even give a 1 point bonus for getting two right. so for me, i'll say that 1) USC covers, 2) i'll take the under, and 3) give me lendale white at +25 yds.

4 comments:

Mrs. Brady said...

Do you have to take away everything? Have you no sensitivity at all? You need to give a girl some time to adjust to one untimely death before predicting another.

alfredo said...

CLE(-3) over chi - the browns are coming off a bye and are at home against a rookie qb. if they can't take this one, then they should be kicked out of the nfl.

GB(-3) over no - two crappy teams, so i guess i'll go with the home team looking to get their ass off that zero.

tb(-3.5) over NYJ - whatever.

sea(+3) over STL - i think that the only reason seattle is the dog here is that they have two injured wideouts. somehow they should still score enough to beat the spread.

ne(+3) over ATL - i don't care who is out for new england, if mike vick is questionable, give me anyone but atlanta.

mia(+3) over BUF - i hate to say it, but give me 50 on this one. nick saban is the latest visionary coaching genius who is unafraid to think outside the four-down box. we may see a lot of fifth down magic out of his playbook. he is to football what neitzche was to amusement parks.

DET(-1.5) over bal - the greatest collection of talent and spirit in the history of the human race rises up and squashes the invaders from baltimore.

HOU(-3) over ten - fuck houston sucks, but they have to win sometime. if last week was any indication, look for lots of penalties and plenty of underneath sissy passing from the texans. you could not pay me to watch this game.

ind(-14.5) over SF - if the colts do not cover the spread, it will only be because peyton spent all night saturday at "the cockpit" and stayed up late thinking of how he could make his bar, interceptions, more like that place. instead of calling plays in huddle, he will be showing his teammates the ideas and pictures that he sketched out on some napkins.

ARI(+3) over car - shit i guess.

phi(-3) over DAL - bledsoe really fucked me good last week. while i hope dallas can win the game, i think an old-fashioned ass-whipping by the eagles is more likely. if only demarcus ware or bill parcells can somehow punch a hole in mcnabb's hernia and put him out for the season.

was(+7) over DEN - i'm picking against denver every week. i figured out that any time spent thinking about them is a total waste. i will only fuck it up. i'm just no good at anything! (stomps off.)

cin(+3) over JAX - i think that cincinnati's penalties were the result of shitty officiating and inexperience from the reserves on the o-line. maybe a good week of practice will get those fellas on the same page. maybe they can practice the snap count after practice and then get some ice cream or have a slumber party or just, you know, talk. i mean really talk about things, you know? maybe something's bothering one of them and he just needs to let it out. maybe football season is just a rough time of year (lots of breakups in the fall, you know) or one of the guys is just going through a weird time in his life. i don't know. what i do know, though, is that jacksonville didn't move the ball for shit last week. i can't bring myself to put money on them, so fuck them, give me the bengals. yow-wow.

pit(+3) over SD - bob, i agree that the A beat B and C beat A so C will beat B reasoning is retarded. football is a little like boxing in that fighting styles and matchups matter a whole fucking lot. the only thing that gives me pause here is that LT is playing like a black version of cliff huxtable when the huxt played running back and god knows i never bet against that motherfucker.

BONUS - let's go ahead and say that i got all of bonus wrong. for a super-bonus, the over-under for sea-stl is 49.5. let's increase the level of difficulty and make it 50.5 for the over or 48 for the under. give me the OVER.

Bob said...

fine i'll take the under.

H8R said...

you guys freakin suck at this...remind me never to take this as a betting guide for vegas...