things just don't seem to be getting any better. i've yet to have a week where i pick at least half of the games correctly, which makes me happy that i'm not actually putting any real money on games on a regular basis anymore. i'd be broke by now. but on a positive note, i did get 6 games right, which is the best i've done this season, and fredo and i actually finished in the money in our local football pool. it looks like things are starting to turn around here at football braintrust, inc. so maybe i will be making another trip to vegas this fall. anyways, like i said, last week, i got 6 games right, plus a one point bonus for the fifty dollar game. i got 1 extra point for the bonus games, for a grand total of 8 points. fredo got 8 games right, but minus 1 for missing his fifty dollar bet. he missed all three of the USC props, but got the over/under for the SEA/STL game for only minus 2 points, so......i actually win this week 8-5. for the season, fredo still leads 25-22. let's get on with it...home team in caps, numbers from caesar's palace sportsbook.
nyg (+3.5) over DAL
this is a classic letdown game for the cowboys. if there's something i've noticed about the cowboys over the past few years, is that they almost always follow up really good wins like the one they had last week against the eagles with really bad wins. i really hope i'm wrong on this one, but all signs point to a cowboys loss. however, if there is a win, then, i'm going to have to really think that the cowboys have a deep playoff run in them.
DET (pk) over car
the panthers are one of the teams that really effed us last week in the pool. we would've won a lot more money had they not scored at the end of the game. anyways, i was on the carolina bandwagon earlier this year, but to me, they just seem real inconsistent. as for the lions, if they lose here after taking control of the division, i'm going to have to shoot my roommate.
atl (-5.5) over NO
there are two ways you can go with this game. first, last week's loss to the packers was rock bottom for a struggling team, and the guys will find a way to muster a win. second, last week was only the tip of the iceberg for one of the worst seasons in NFL history. with duece out, give scenario #2 vick or no vick.
min (+3) over CHI
i really don't think that the bears are that much better than the vikes. and you could always speculate that this week's extracurricular activities are a distraction to the team, but i just saw a press conference with daunte culpepper and it looks like he's pretty mad. i like the vikes with a chip on their shoulder. and the bears, well...they may have sorted out the backfield situation, but their qb is still kyle orton.
was (+6) over KC
i really don't know what the chiefs have done off the bye in years past, but from what i can tell, the skins have gotten better each week. kc on the other hand is still struggling in the passing game. i'll take defense over offense here and i'll take the points as well.
cin (-3) over TEN
the titans have been a covering machine this year, even though they still don't look like that good a team. and cinnci...well, they haven't covered in a couple of weeks and i still think they're pretty good. my reasoning here is that both of these teams get closer to where they should be against the line this year.
PIT (-3.5) over jax
there's no reason to bet against the steelers these days.
cle (+6) over BAL
i was originally going to go with the ravens under the premise that last week's loss to the lions was rock bottom for them, but they haven't done crap this year and six points seems like just too many. the browns on the other hand have been better than expected.
TB (-4.5) over mia
i'm as excited as anyone to get ricky williams back into a football uniform, but let's not jump the gun here. part of me wishes that there would be some miracle comeback where ricky rushes for 150 yards and 2 tds, but i just don't see that happening against a good run defense. plus if there's one thing we learned last week, it's not to trust stupid qbs like brian griese on the road.
DEN (-3) over ne
last week, everyone was raving about how the patriots rallied to make up for their thrashing by san diego last week and "just found a way to win" against the falcons. excuse me, that was a falcons team minus mike vick. they were lucky that they won, not good. denver all the way baby. i'd put 50 on this one were it not for a much more obvious game involving one closeted douchebag quarterback and his horsied-mascotted team.
BUF (-3) over nyj
sure it was nice to see and old fart like vinnie pull one out of his ass last week, but again, let's not get carried away this week. the jets are done this year without a real qb back there. there's no way that vinnie can put it together for more than a few weeks. meanwhile the bills just got better at QB by going with holcomb over losman. HK's mom told me that i should stay away from betting on bills' games and were i in vegas i would heed her advice and i'd actually stay away from this one.
sd (-2.5) over OAK
the chargers are the best 2-3 team in football and i think they take their frustrations out on the raiders's d. i envision a wild west shootout here, so i'd take the over (50) too.
hou (+9.5) over SEA
this seems like just the kind of game that mike holmgrem seems to eff up on an annual basis. that's just too many points for holmgren. and of course at about this time, the texans have to win a game at some point.
IND (-13.5) over stl
it looks like i was wrong about the colts offensive philosophy. i know that martz is out and that actually works to the rams advantage, but indy's defense is going to kill, and i mean just kill marc bulger this week. i'd sit him if he were on my fantasy squad. also, i'm going to start playing the fredo game and say that this game is so easy, that even with hot black specimens stephen jackson and torry holt coming into town to distract peyton, that the colts cover easily. give me fifty on the colts here.
bonus props: as mentioned before, this week marks the return of r. williams to the league. i think that the nfl ought to do one of those goofy promos with the real r. williams and ricky williams in the psychologists office, with r. williams telling ricky over and over again, "it's not your fault." i think that'd be hilarious. anyways, let's set the over/under on the number of rushing yards that he gets. i'll set the line at 60 and i'm going to go ahead and take the over here. i think nick saban has a secret man crush on ricky and is going to try his hardest to show everyone that he's more than just and x's and o's coach and that he can coax talent out of problem children.