10.27.2005

bobby the gook, week 8

sorry, about the last post on the nfl, had to catch a flight to sanantone for a wedding. good time was had by all, but it's time to get back to business. overall, fredo keeps kicking my ass, and i'm almost to the point where i'm going to have to go mad scientist to catch up. a quick note on the bonus game. i can close bonuses if i want, cuz i'm the house. fredo didn't hit his parlay, but he did get 2 out of three. what i'll do is i'll go ahead and award him one point for getting 2 out of 3 right (+2 for the 2 he got right, -1 for the one he missed). i would've normally given an extra point for getting 2 out of three, but like i said, i'm the house here and i didn't have access to a computer that weekend. i think that this is a fair compromise. anyways, i've recently figured out that one of the things that i haven't been doing is going through the injury lists as thoroughly as i should be, so i'm going to do that this week and hope it helps out. anyways, this is how the last two weeks shook down.


BobFred
Week 6

Games Correct79
50 $ bet+1+1
Bonus+4+6
Week 6 Total1216



Week 7*

Games Correct77
Bonus0+1
Week 7 Total78
* there was no $50 bet for either bob or fred, and bob did not get a bonus bet in.

so anyways, our current standings: me - 51, fredo - 59. on with the betting. home team in caps, point spreads from caesar's.

NYG (-2.5) over was
yeah, the giants won on a miracle last week, but the offense should be fine with burress back catching passes. although i really hate this game because it doesn't look like brunell is showing any signs of slowing down this season. this could go either way, so i'll just go with the home team. on a related note, after eli won the game on a last second td last week, his brother peyton sent him 4 complimentary passes to his newly revamped all-male revue bar, interceptions.

CIN (-9) over gb
well, it was nice while it lasted. green bay goes from suck to suckier with ahman green and robert ferguson going down this week. favre is ready to blow his brains out. it seems to me that he's still depressed about how he should have retired last season. look for this funk to go on for one more game before he decides to eff it all and turns into the interception throwing gunslinger of old and the pack starts upsetting people. but like i said, that starts next week.

DET (-3) over chi
no i don't think things are going to change much with the dawn of the jeff garcia era, but i certainly don't like kyle orton on the road.

CAR (-8) over min
terrible teams always let down after miraculous wins. that's what makes them terrible.

oak (-2) over TEN
for some reason, caesar's has this one off the board right now. from what i can tell from the injury report, mcnair is a go, and moss will play, but in a limited role. still, i like the raiders here only because i think they're gonna be better than they have been and i think they make start their playoff push with a bunch of wild ass shootouts, starting here. p.s. they still won't make the playoffs.

DAL (-9) over ari
this one is giving me fits. is it just me or is this spread to big especially with julius still out? (yes) and is bledsoe about to turn into the qb that he was for the past two years? (i'm getting the shakes just thinking about it) dare i take a stupid qb like josh mccown on the road? (probably shouldn't) do i trust the dallas secondary to cover a physical reciever like anquan boldin? (well, they seemed to be able to keep t.o. and plaxico in check). man, eff this game, and eff the cardinals, and even though the cowboys always seem to have trouble with this team, give me the cowboys.

HOU (-2) over cle
this really ought to be a pickem, but we'll go on the decidedly unscientific logic that this is houston's best chance to win a game. although i'm hoping that this is at least a shootout as i;ve got dilfer and antonio bryant filling in for some of my fantasy bye week players.

NO (-2.5) over mia
another game that i just don't give a crap about. since my usual football genius has been shaky this year, i'll go with stupid crap like the saints get an emotional lift from playing their first game in louisiana (baton rouge) this week. also, i hear that the dolphins defense is banged up to hell.

jax (-3) over STL
is there really any reason bet with jamie martin under center? well, the rams are at home, but torry holt and isaac bruce look like no-gos this week. stephen jackson ought to have a great game, but i think the jagoffs' defense will be enough. the line on this one is off as well at caesar's so i went with espn's number here as well.

kc (+6) over SD
i'll take t. green over d. brees thank you very much. by the way, take the over here as well (50).

tam (-11.5) over SFO
i keep screwing up some of the abbreviations for the teams. tampa bay's official abbreviation is tam, not tb. anyways, alex smith is going to go down the likes of akili smith and ryan leaf. this guy sucks. everyone is saying how smart he is, and how that will get him through. good luck with all that. cadillac williams is going to run for 280 yds in this game, and the bucs defense will score at least once. gimme fiddy.

DEN (-3.5) over phi
only because they're at home. stay away.

NE (-9) over buf
game one of the northeast sunday night/monday night stinker double header. belichick off the bye...fuggedaboutit.

PIT (-10) over bal
big ben and hines coming back, check. ray lewis and ed reed out for this game, check. pittsburgh looking to show the world just how much metroplex school boy hero tommy maddox from l.d. bell high school, who in his senior year led the area in passing in football AND scoring in basketball, check. looks like i have all the favorites reasserting themselves this week.

bonus props - for me one of the big stories of the year is just how much daunte culpepper has sucked it. let's set the over/under for the number of INT's he throws against a above average secondary in carolina + the number of times he fumbles. i'll set daunte's turnover line at 2, and i'll take the over. but wait, there's more. let's set up a trifecta of props. so daunte is part 1. part two is the number of TD's scored in the pathetic texans/browns games. inept offense vs. inept defense. the line is 37, so i'll interpret that as four TD's total, but i think that this is going to end up being a shootout. i'll take the over. the final leg will be an old prop. cadillac williams vs. a crappy defense in the niners. we'll set the line at 120 yds, and i'll take the over here as well.

so to recap. leg 1 daunte's turnovers, over/under at 2, give me the over. leg 2, number of TDs scored between the texans/browns, over under at 4, i'll take the over. leg 3, rushing yards by cadillac williams, over/under at 120, give me the over. one point for each leg correct, minus one for each incorrect, and a super bonus this week of 3 points for 3 out of 3 and a one point bonus for 2 out of 3.

no parlays this week. i'm the goddammed house here, so my rules are the rules.

2 comments:

alfredo said...

bob -thanks for the 2 out of 3 bonus. if you notice, i pushed on the one game you didn't give me (seattle-dallas). if i had played a real parlay with 1/2 point lines, i would've gotten this.

alfredo said...

NYG(-2.5) over was - i wish both of these teams could lose.

gb(+9) over CIN - green bay keeps it close and loses by 6.

DET(-3) over chi - detroit starts its run here. make your reservations for the super bowl today.

CAR(-8) over min - minnesota won't even show up for this one.

oak(-2) over TEN - the raiders should really knock the crap out of tennessee, but they still make me too nervous to go 50 on the road.

DAL(-9) over ari - dallas puts last week's hideous loss behind them and comes up big against this pack of losers.

cle(+2) over HOU - houston can pound sand until about week ten or eleven or so.

NO(-2.5) over mia - aaron brooks throws for five touchdowns as the saints squeak it out 55-52.

jax(-3) over STL - everything i see says that jacksonville is a way better team than st louis. give me fifty on this one.

kc(+6) over SD - where'd this +6 line come from? oh well, go with it.

sf(+11.5) over tam - san francisco is one rotten-ass team, but i still must obey my rule against betting with chris simms the jackass on the road.

phi(+3.5) over DEN - again, just staying the course all year against denver. something tells me that philly is going to smack them, though. i keep thinking about what they did to kc in kc.

NE(-9) over buf - nine points is a lot, but tom brady promised a sick kid in the hospital that he'd cover the damn spread if it's the last thing he does.

PIT(-10) over bal - this one seems easy. baltimore hasn't done a damn thing all year and now their two best players are out. i would guess this line has hit 11 by now.

daunte's turnovers (2) - OVER
TD's in HOU/cle (4) - UNDER
cadillac rushing yards (120) - UNDER