god-effing-dammit, i am really at a lost for words as to my performance this year. i suppose all those years of success picking games are starting to catch up to me. the only thing i can think of is that the cowboys are doing well, and most of fantasy teams are doing ok as well, so i guess i can't win 'em all. or more likely, this has been one weird NFL season. i suppose it doesn't matter since i'm still having lots of fun. anyways, the whole t.o. thing has gotten me worn out on football this week. on sports in general, because all around, it's just a shitty deal for football. nothing good to come out of it. we get cheated out of one of the best athletes in the world, and instead we have to hear about what a big freakin a-hole he is and even worse, we have to hear about what an even bigger freakin' a-hole his agent is. i've also been distracted by the fact that they've found a fossil of a new really scary looking dinosaur. lastly, i've been distracted by the prospect of NFL cheerleaders getting caught having sex for each other and then finding out they were most definitely not hot. sometime's it is hard being a male in this world. anyways, last week saw me get my usual 5-6 games, with 6 games, i got my fifty dollar game, and i got 2 out of the 3 bonus bets for a total of 8 points. the bruschi bet is cancelled because i fell asleep during the game. anyways, fredo barely did better with the games getting 7 of them, but he got a boat load of bonus points, 1 for the fifty dollar bet and 5 for nailing the peyton parlay. so that gives him 13 freakin' points. erik also played along last week, and it turns out he is smarter than all of us cuz he got 9 freakin' games right. he missed his fifty dollar bet and he got two out of three correct for a total of 9 points. anyways, the current standings between me and fredo are fredo - 82, me - 61. i'm falling way out of contention so this week, i'm going to pull out all the stops and go extra mad scientist to try and catch up. if erik wants to jump in the frey, i'll also tally points for us from this point on. anyways, i suck so bad, this week, i'm just going to say eff it and pick the opposite of what i would normally do. so the game descriptions will be reasons why the team i didn't take (who in reality i think will win) will win. i figure i can't do any worse than i normally have been. point spreads from caesar's, home team in caps.
kc (+2.5) over BUF
i really don't understand this line at all. it seems like a trap to me as i'm not sure what is so great about buffalo at home to warrant making them the favorites. so to be on the right side of this trap, i'd take buffalo. (just so we're clear, i like buffalo, but since i'm going crazy, my official pick is kc).
TB (pk) over was
the buccaneers are starting to look like they're the team that started hot, but is now fading fast. i think that cadillac williams will be a fine back, but he's starting to look tired. and chris simms, well, let's put it this way, if you're hoping and praying for brian griese to get better...you're effed.
ne (-3) over MIA
the one thing that i did like about myself last week was that i called ricky's first td of the season, and from the highlights, he looked pretty damn good to me. miami has a real good deal with him and ronnie brown. the patriots on the other hand...well, i think in years past, we would have hated to bet against them two weeks in a row, but the wheels look to be falling off with that defense.
sfo (+13.5) over CHI
chicago is making the best out of really horrible division. i don't think that the niners could beat anyone else in the NFC north, why would i think they can beat the bears.
min (+10) over NYG
the giants have been great at home and from what i can tell they've been especially good against inferior oponents. also the vikes suck on the road. on the plus side, it looks like brad johnson isn't completely running on empty, but he's definitely not going to turn this season around for the vikes.
ari (+4) over DET
the worst thing that could happen to the lions is that they win any more games. they need to hit rock bottom, clean house in management and trade away kevin jones, roy and mike williams, and shaun rogers and just start from scratch. so with their luck, harrington will look ok down the stretch and that will fool the idiotic detroit management to stay the course. and the cards...well, they're just sad. by the way, this kurt warner/joey harrington showdown is one of the worst qb matchups in recent history.
bal (+7) over JAX
this one isn't as easy for the jags as you might think. i feel like they've gotten a little lucky lately. however, since the ravens have basically given up on the season, the jags will continue their paper lion march to the playoffs.
IND (-18) over hou
classic letdown game for the colts. for the texans, the return of andre johnson can only be a good thing. hey fred, what has houston done against the line? from what i can tell they haven't been horrible, so i say that indy puts it on cruise control and houston stays within a couple of TDs.
CAR (-9.5) over nyj
this is an exception to opposite week, because this one is soooooo easy to call. looks like that the panthers are hitting their stride. gimme fifty on this cakewalk for the panthers.
OAK (+3) over den
back to opposite week. there's just no reason to think that denver can't cover this spread. no reason whatsoever. on a side note, i think that it's really funny that even with moss running at about 70% that collins is still always looking for him. not that porter is the next tim brown or anything, but it's not like he's never open. anyways, i should note that plummer is not playing half bad this season, so here's to trying to jinx him.
stl (+6.5) over SEA
again, i'm going to make an exception to opposite week, because this is a mortal lock. the rams are close to full strength with holt, bulger, and maybe even bruce playing in this game. the seahawks are another team that isn't nearly as good as their record indicates. bulger torches the seahawks defense here and the rams continue to play better as underdogs.
ATL (-9.5) over gb
ok, back to opposite week again. i just have a feeling that green bay is going to play well this week. there's no real reason to take the packers here, but i think they'll make a game out of this.
cle (+8.5) over PIT
of course, you have to beware the charlie batch factor, but the steeler's defense makes me horny.
PHI (-3) over dal
this line really confuses me as well. the conventional wisdom is that the eagles really have something to prove this week. i don't buy this for a second. if they had something to prove why didn't they win last week? the obvious thing here is that the eagles are what they were a few years ago, a decent team. the difference now is that their division is much better than they used to be. by the way, i would pay for the ticket myself if i could somehow get t.o. to come to the game and stand on the dallas sideline. that'd be some good tv.
bonus props! since fredo and i have a real parlay in action, we're going to bypass the parlay option again. there are some notable names who have recently gone down for the season and their backups have done ok so far. so we're going to play second string over/under. here are the over/under props:
brad johnson passing TD's - 1.5
larry johnson rushing yards - 115
reggie brown (t.o.'s replacement) recieving yards - 85
give me the brad johnson over, the larry johnson over and the reggie brown under. same scoring system as always, +1 for each leg correct, -1 for each leg incorrect, +2 bonus for hitting all three.