this is just getting ridiculous. one of the great mysteries of 2005 will be how i lost my football mojo. perhaps at the end of the season, we'll revisit this topic and discuss possible causes, but for right now, let's just thank the good lord above that i'm not playing with any real money. except for the football pool that i'm in where fred and i are mired at the bottom of the pack. still, it's not time to go crazy yet. we have one half of a football season left. so if my current losing streak is still going by week 10, then it's time to get super mad scientist on you fools. i had a terrible week with six games, minus 1 for the 50 dollar bonus and minus 3 for missing my parlay completely for 2 freakin' points. fredo on the other hand, actually had a shitty week as well with only 5 games, and minus 1 for the fifty dollar bet, but he nailed the parlay for a bonus of +6 for a total of 10 points for the week. the current standings are me - 53, fredo - 69! hey everyone fredo scored 69! yea! if i were fredo, i'd work hard at not winning any more games so that he can finish the season at 69. on with the picks, home team in caps, point spreads from caesar's.
MIN (+1.5) over det
i'm done with the lions. the way they lost that game is one of the worst things i've ever seen in football. that franchise is in complete disarray and matt millen needs to be decapitated and have his head displayed in the locker room as a warning to future GM's. anyways, here's how much vegas hates joey harrington. they're playing what has probably been the worst team in the NFL without their star quarterback, without a defense, and probably a bunch of cases of herpes, and vegas is basically telling you, we just don't know with a small line like that. the lion's season is over, they mail it in from here on out.
sd (-6.5) over NYJ
i could be wrong, but i feel like the bolts have been good against the spread this year, or at least they've alternated. not that it matters against a terrible team like the jets, who are another franchise that pinned to many of their hopes on a quarterback that just can't get it done.
ten (+3) over CLE
uh...yeah....whatever. give me the points.
oak (+4.5) over KC
call me crazy, but i think that lamont jordan is going to have a monster day at arrowhead. i just checked the weather and it's still nice in KC so i think that the chiefs will lose a little bit of the homefield. plus i heart priest holmes
NO (+2.5) over chi
before the hurricane, the saints were maddeningly inconsistent as a team and against the spread. now the team sucks, but they're still maddeningly inconsistent against the spread. i dunno, i just like taking home dogs...
cin (-3) over BAL
...unless your defense is missing its best two players and you're playing a pretty good team...
car (-1.5) over TB
...or your quarterback's name is chris simms. plus it looks like carolina is finally getting it together. i think they've looked really good the past few weeks.
JAX (-13.5) over hou
the big lines just killed me last week, as most of those dogs covered. but like i said last week, after big wins, bad teams almost always will let down. and i know they only beat the browns, but any win for the texans is a big win.
MIA (+3) over atl
back to the home dogs...yeah, i don't know what the falcons have done off the bye, but this just makes sense to me. i figure that vick won't have a great day throwing the ball against a decent miami secondary, and that saban is just going to pound the ball all day. i also think that ricky williams is going to score his first td this week.
SFO (+11) over nyg
really good wins for both the niners and the giants last week. however, history tells me to not take eli manning on the road.
sea (-4) over ARI
kurt warner gets the start for the cards and the hawks are coming off a week of rest. although this one might get f'ed up by holmgren. he still hasn't lost those crucial few games that he should win but effs up anyway, so i'm basically waiting for the other shoe to drop.
pit (-4) over GB
i can't find the line anywhere for this one. presumably it's off because of rothliaasdg;k being out. the only thing that i could find was that the line opened up at 6, so i figure i'd shave off just a few with chuckie batch starting. i think that it's curious that tommy maddox is still on the roster. i mean after what he did in jacksonville, is there any rationale whatsoever to keep this guy around? anyways, the brett favre suicide watch has officially started. you thought 5 ints was a lot? just wait until now, when he's totally mailed it in.
WAS (-3) over phi
both of these teams are coming off pretty embarassing losses last week. the line here is off at caesar's as well, as it seems that it's still up in the air whether or not mcnabb is going to play this week. even with mcnabb though, i like washington's defense alot better than philly's. i mean i like it a whoooooooole lot better, gimme fifty on this one.
NE (+3) over ind
bonus props! i really can't think of a game in the past few years, that when you saw it when the schedules first came out, you knew it was going to be monumental as the new england/colts tilt this monday night. and the reason why this game is so big is for one reason and one reason only: peyton manning. i can't think who has excelled as much as he had that has had as big of a monkey on his back. for the past two years, we've seen the best quarterback of the last five year, heck maybe even of the best qb of his generation turn into a whiny little bitch whenever he faces the pats. i almost felt sorry for him last year as he was standing on the sideline. it really looked like he was about to break down and start crying. it's almost as if he doesn't win this one, he'll never ever win a super bowl, and he'll go down in history with the likes of the dan marinos, the charles barkleys and the ted williamses of the world.
and now, this is his best chance to tame this demon. his team is undefeated and the patriots are most definitely not at full strength. indy's defense is better than it ever has been, and the pats have got nothing in their secondary. i like indy's defense alot and unlike my roommate, i don't think they're overrated. in fact, i think they're pretty effin' awesome. they actually remind me a lot of the early nineties cowboys' defenses, in that they were faster than just about any other unit that anyone could throw out there. these cats can fly. they have a charles haley in dwight freeny. a pass rushing monster that really improves the games of the other less talented defensive lineman. but here's the difference. dallas' secondary was a hell of a lot better with all sorts of solid corners and of course the key piece darren the sherrif woodson patrolling the secondary and crushing any ball carrier who dare get past eight yards of the line of scrimmage. indy's secondary is ok, but nothing like the cowboys. and with tom brady throwing the passes...well, did any of you see the baltimore game last week. what he did, bringing his team back to score three td's like that in the fourth quarter...well, i hate to invoke this phrase, but that was just plain jordanesque. so that's why i expect indy to fold like an unsuited 2-7. and since this game is all about peyton, we'll build our bonuses around mannings' performance.
leg 1 - # of ints thrown over/under - 1.5
leg 2 - # of TDs throw over/under - 2.5
leg 3 - passing yards over/under - 275
usual scoring system 1 pt per leg, however, i'm going to limit bonus points to 2 if you get all three. i'll take the under on the first 2 and the over on the last one.
super duper bonus props - the only thing that can detract from the manning talk is tedi bruschi. i'm glad as anyone that he's back, but part of me (the extremely dark and sorry part) almost wants him to suffer some kind of serious heart problem during the game that like makes him lose the use of his legs or something, just so that we can stop overpraising this guy for being brave or courageous or full of heart or some phony crap like that. don't get me wrong, he's an above average linebacker, but he's nowhere in the same league as the ray lewis' or the lawrence taylor's of the world. people just want to make him a hero because he looks and acts like mr. generic white sports guy. so this prop is going to be super duper - one of us is going to get an extra point, and one of us is going to lose a point. we have to predict the number of times that ABC from kickoff to the game clock expires, shows tedi bruschi on the sidelines doing nothing. in other words, how much attention is going to be paid to tedi bruschi than would otherise normally be paid to him. so if he's shown walking off the field after he makes a play or trying to fire up his teammates or talking to a coach, that is something that you would expect. i want to know how often they cut to him, just standing there doing nothing just so that they can talk about him. i can't even begin to think of an over under, which is why i'm forcing both of us to just give guesses. the person who is closer without going over wins a point. the other person loses a point. i think that they'll show him a lot during the first part of the game, but then switch angles as it becomes clearer that peyton manning is seriously questioning his sexuality, but even so, they'll still show him at least twice a quarter. i'll guess 7 cuts to brusci doing nothing.