8.03.2006

bobby the gook season 3, preseason action part 3

north divisions ho!

AFC north
cincinnati - 9: over (-105) under(-125)
this is a real interesting one. we'll use fredo's SI litmus test for this one. what's more likely to appear in sports illustrated, a story about how carson palmer has defied history and all medical science to come back from a major major injury to lead the bengals to another hot start, or a story about how the bengals fans are tortured and cursed and palmer's injury is causing problems. give me the latter. as much as i love chad johnson and rudi, i just don't see how carson palmer can come back from an ACL tear and kick as much ass. under, big time.

pittsburgh - 10: over(-125) under (-105)
again, i think vegas has it all wrong. do the steelers have the look or feel of a team on the beginning of its dynasty run, or do they look like a pretty good team that maybe won because of some questionable calls in the super bowl. again, give me scenario #2, and i'll take the under here as well. on a side note, i think it'd be a pretty good gag for ben rothlisberger to play the first series of the first game without his helmet.

cleveland - 6.5: over(-150) under(+120)
i'm not sure why vegas likes the browns so much. seriously, what about them scares you, i don't even know who any of the skill position starters are. jesus h. christ does this division stink so far. i'm going to take the under here as well.

baltimore - 8: over(-150) under(+120)
i'm not real high on the ravens truth be told. mcnair may be better than boller, but come on, is there any doubt that he'll only play 9-11 games? but geez, someone has to win this horrible division, by default, i will take the over here.

NFC north
chicago - 9.5: over(-130) under(even)
vegas has such little faith in the bears. it seems like they always encourage the under for the monsters of the midway. i still hate their offense (i'm predicting grossman to get injured in the third quarter of week 1), but i think the running game is pretty sound, which is perfect for their defense. factor in a rather weak division and you've got the looks of 10 wins and a wild card loss. over.

minnesota - 8: over(-125) under(-105)
i can't get behind brad johnson for another year, but i can get behind chester taylor runnign behind a pretty good line. i'm not sure where taylor is going in fantasy drafts but i'm guessing a season similar to lamont jordan's season last year. in that this is his first year at the man, so he'll get yards by default, but not consistently from week to week. i think i'm going to angle for him in my drafts. in terms of wins, the schedule looks fairly easy, so i'll side with vegas and take the over.

detroit - 7: over(even) under(-130)
with the harrington era finally over, detroit can finally begin the process of rebuilding. that's right erik, rebuilding. and that means another losing season. i actually like john kitna and josh mccown. but here's the deal, detroit sucks. what are the odds that a city has winners in basketball, baseball, and football in the same year. the schedule looks pretty easy, but i just can't bring myself to do it. this team doesn't have a single proven starter on offense. not a one. this team has 4-6 wins written all over it. vegas hit this one on the head, under all the way.

green bay - 6.5: over(-110) under(-120)
it sure is nice of brett favre to treat us all like idiots and proclaim that this team is the most talented he's ever been on. ridiculous. ahman green coming off an injury, no javon walker, and a qb who has abso-effing-lutely nothing left in the tank. i'll go ahead and also set the over/under on favre ints at 19...give me the over on that one and the under on the season.

of all the divisions in the NFL, i think that the north division is my least favorite.

6 comments:

Erik said...

Bob, you're nuts.

First of all, how can you take the under on three teams out of four in a division? Cinci looks ready for a breakout year. Palmer is a pocket quarterback anyway, so his ACL (which seems fine from what everyone is saying) will be mostly a non-issue. Johnson is a hot property, so look for enough questionable calls to seal the deal for 10 wins here. Over.

And Pittsburgh is all set for yet another 13-15 wins. How many times will you underestimate this franchise, Bob? "Pretty good team?" Please, the Steelers have one of the most solid defenses and run games in the league. If that's good enough for Chicago with no offense, it's good enough for the Steelers. Plus, they're playing the Browns and the Ravens twice. Over. Over. Over.

I won't bother with the mistake by the lake, and Baltimore has disaster written all over it. Put them both under the carpet and forget about them.

Chicago -- I agree with you for once.

Minnesota. Who's Johnson's backup? Because they're going to need him. Talk about no proven starters on offence. New coach, shitty defense, relatively tough schedule (Chicago and Detroit twice). Under.

Green Bay. Sad story as Farve's ego has now completely taken over the entire franchise. I'm thinking Brett gets pulled over for a DUI in week 7 and he starts screaming racial epithets at the arresting officer, claiming that Buddhists start all the wars in the world. That's the kind of disaster this season is going to be for the cheeseheads. U.n.d.e.r.

And now, finally, we get to the pinnacle of Bob's failed football genius. The Lions have been rebuilding all summer. Martz has transformed what used to be a lackluster offense filled with talent into a spectacular offense filled with talent. Kevin Jones, Roy Williams, and Charles Rogers will actually stay healthy this year, and then I've got two more words for you. Jon Kitna. Factor in a retooled defense featuring Shaun Rogers, Dre Bly, and Ernie Sims and you've got yourself a complete team and the NFC North champs, and very likely the NFL champs as well. Over. Over. Over the river and through the woods to Bob's mom's house we go.

Bob said...

as always erik, your loyalty is admirable. but tell me, what's more likely, #1) that an extremely mismanaged team with zero marquee players at the skill positions finishes near the bottom of the league, or #2) a scrappy team of cast offs pull together and become greater than the sum of their parts. give me scenario #1 every single effing time. the more i think about this one, the more i'm sure that the lions are going to be bad this year. i'm sorry to disappoint you erik, but i calls them like i sees them.

p.s. my favorite part of your comment was "...and then I've got two more words for you. Jon Kitna." you can't tell me that you typed that in with a straight face. you just can't.

Ian said...

Erik, obviously you weren't paying any attention to the Detroit sports media while you were here. Charles Rogers is considered a longshot to even make the team.

The closest thing we have to a marquee player at a skilled position is Kevin Jones (who scouts are saying looks like an absolute stud in training camp), but even he is the kind of player who needs big help from the offensive line, and Detroit's offensive line has been famously deficient for more than 20 years.

Your optimism is admirable, Erik. It's also laughable. If Detroit wins more than 5 games, it's due to the fact that they play in the league's most pathetic division.

H8R said...

Joooooooon Kitna...hillarious. that guy is piece of shit. did you miss seeing him fail miserably last year in the playoffs when palmer went down? kitna can get you a max of 8-9 wins on a great team and guess what? that detroit is not...

on a side note i completely disagree with your denver prediction b. under???? what? they are being picked by many to win the super bowl and i dont mean clowns like erik. sure, plummer is a douche bag but as long as he doesnt loose any games for denver, i think their running game (a lot of good reports about dayne coming out of camp--same offensive scheme he ran with at wisconsin--i also think youre just a tad bitter here since dayne single handedly pounded dallas last year) can get them enough points. take that with their under-rated defense and the broncos can easily get to the superbowl. its gotta be over all the way here. H8RS prediction: 12-4.

Bob said...

sorry c. i see your point, but i can't even begin to tell you how much money i've made in my lifetime betting against the snake. plus don't forget shanahan's heroin addiction.

alfredo said...

AFC North

Cincinnati (9) - under. how can you trust carson palmer anymore after wussing out in the playoffs like that? what a pussy. ohhh, i hurt my knee. get the hell up and win the super bowl so i can collect my money, jackass.

Pittsburgh (10) - over. so long as roethlisberger only hurts his meathead, pittsburgh will be okay.

cleveland (6.5) - over. just respecting vegas here.

baltimore (8) - under. unless mcnair fixed his time machine, this collection of nutsucks is screwed. there's no way they bring billick back next year.

NFC North

Chicago (9.5) - like my eggs, over easy.

Minnesota (8) - under. this one might be worth an actual bet. don't get sucked in by their schedule or their finish last season. just remember: starting qb brad johnson and backup mike mcmahon. nothing annoys johnson more than having to play all 16 games. look for him and mcmahon to extinguish the vikings playoff hopes with their patented tag team interception pile driver off the top rope.

Green Bay (6.5) - over. as much as i can't stand favre, green bay should be able to eke out 7 meaningless wins. by the way, i'm already sick of whatever ball-washing favre will receive from the media and fans as he fumbles his way through his farewell tour. good riddance, you pill-popping interception junkie.

Detroit (7) - holy shit, seven? i was ready to have erik's back on detroit because i thought that the number might be five or six, tops. but seven? just getting rid of harrington and mariucci might be worth six wins alone. i guess between that and having a fighting chance against minnesota, green bay, the jets and 3/4 of the nfc west, the over is not entirely out of the question. that would be as good as a super bowl for the lions. so congratulations on winning the super bowl this year, erik. over.