bobby the gook season 3, week 1

all right kids, let's just hit the ground running, kickoff is less than an hour away, so no time to waste. scoring rules can be found here, and lines come from caesar's sportsbook. home team in caps.

mia (+1) over PIT (o/u - 34.5)
this line started at miami +5.5, but since roethlisberger hurt his appendix, it has plummeted. to be honest, i'm amazed that the steelers are still favored. this is going to be a pretty defensive affair especially with america's favorite qb charlie batch lining up for your defending super bowl champs. hmmm...good luck with all that. although the steelers were 2-0 with him starting last year. miami on the other hand is everyone, and i mean everyone's trendy pick to kick ass this year. count me as one of those people. in other news, i read that the steelers were going to play all kickoffs without helmets as a tribute to their fallen comrade. not that it will matter, gimme miami.

den (-4) over STL (o/u - 46)
seriously, over the years, i estimate that i've won well over 1000 bucks betting against jake plummer. it seems that this year, he's got a lot of things going for him with a proven receiver in javon walker and the always steady running game. mike martz really left things a mess in st. louis. some people seem to think that the rams are going to surprise people this season, but i just don't see it. believe it or not, i hate marc bulger worst than jake plummer this year. i'll take denver.

TEN(-3) over nyj (o/u - 36)
how much does it suck to have a game in week 1 where both teams' season is already over? the jets are horrible and the titans are at home, seems pretty easy to me. smart money is on tennessee, i'm since i'm smart, i'll take the titans.

buf (-9.5) over NE (o/u - 41)
wow, that's a big number, up from 7 earlier in the week. this is stupid, but i'm going to be a contrarian since i have willis mcgahee on my fantasy team, and say that the bills lose but keep it within a touchdown. hello rochester! gimme the bills.

bal (+3) over TAM (o/u -34)
admittedly, this isn't a smart pick, but chris simms may become my new jake plummer. do i think mcnair has anything left for the ravens, no, but when i think of the matchup of ray lewis and ed reed vs. chris simms, my heart goes out to chris' father phil. upset special, as i want the ravens.

cin (-2.5) over KC (o/u -46)
as fredo and i discussed earlier today...you should and i will include the over in your parlay. that's good money as kc's defense isn't going to stop anyone just yet, let alone the bengals. don't get me wrong, i think that carson palmer is still going to have problems with the knee, but he'll be fine for week 1 as the johnson brothers are going to go buckwild. although, this spread is down a point and a half from where it started. the pick is cinncinnatti.

sea (-6) over DET (o/u -45)
the more i think about the seahawks, the less i like their chances of returning to the super bowl. however, the more i think about detroit, the less i like their chances of winning a game this season. i feel bad for my roommate who is lions superfan #1. i tried to justify taking the lions, i really did, but i can't in good conscience pick the lions. seattle.

CAR (-4.5) over atl (o/u -39.5)
ughhhhh. stay away. this pick seems too easy. i'll take the carolina pantha'.

phi (-5) over HOU (o/u - 37)
i think fredo nailed it when he said the eagles are going to start hot and then fade hard after week 10. i think that mcnabb is going to have a really big game this week, so fantasy people with eagles, start 'em with confidence as the eagles are going to roll. eagles all the way.

CLE (-3) over no (o/u -36)
if i were a patriotic american i would say that the saints are a cinch to win their first game this season. however, i am not a patriotic american and more importantly, the saints defense has a lot of problems, which probably means that they hate america as well. the browns on the other hand are as american as apple pie and love the freedom which is brought to us via dead iraqi civilians. as seeing as how they're dying by the dozen over there, gimme the browns.

dal (+2) over JAX (o/u -36.5)
i have plenty of reasons not to take the cowboys here. dallas has a lousy record on opening day in the past 5 years. the jags play stout defense against the run, which i think parcells is going to do alot of. however, i just heard that marcus stroud sprained his ankle in practice and is questionable for sunday. he is the one that makes that defense go. besides, did you really think i'd pick against the cowboys during their super bowl run? the cowboys start with a win over the jags and win over the number.

chi (-3.5) over GB (o/u -34.5)
defense wins championships and in the case of this game, it also bends brett favre over and inserts the football into his anus. the funny thing is that i bet that in some alternate universe, this game is hailed as the passing of the torch from rex grossman to brett favre. however, in this universe, grossman sucks and favre gets concussed in the first quarter. bears, big time.

ARI (-7.5) over sfo (o/u - 42.5)
new stadium, new running back, worst team in the national football league. sounds like a blowout to me. gimme the cards and gimme three TDs for kurt warner. and gimme the under as i think that the niners get shut out.

ind (-3) over NYG (o/u -48.5)
fredo and i are thinking about calling our team for our football pool "peyton loves eli". that has nothing to do with anything but worth mentioning. if the colts don't blow out the giants, then i'll eat a live frog. gimme fiddy on the colts.

WAS (-4) over minn (o/u - 35)
ummm...no one knows what the deal is with portis is yet, but it shouldn't matter as i think the defense will end up winning this one for the skins. i hate taking the skins by the way, but the skins are the pick.

OAK (+3) over sd (o/u - 43.5)
as mentioned before, the chargers are the cause of the great rift between fred and i. always slow starters, i think the chargers are going to be unprepared for the brooks/moss connection. call me crazy, but aaron brooks looked good in preseason. that and i've only taken three underdogs so far, so let's get this rumble started. i'll take the raaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaiders.

ok, fred isn't going to be able to get his picks until later, but he told me he's taking miami tonight. i've got to get out to watch the game now, so i'll get my parlays in a comment later on. but i think we can all agree that our parlays this week cannot have the miami game on it. ok kids, let's rock and roll.


Bob said...

for my first parlay, we're gonna go relatively conservative. i'll do 5 bucks on a three leg parlay, gimme philly, chicago, and indy to cover. and 5 bucks on a four leg parlay with the same teams plus arizona...your move alfredo, your move.

alfredo said...

alright, alright alright...

ok, miami already blew the first one, so-

den over STL - i'm not worried at all. shanahan and i have made up, so i'm allowed to pick the broncos this year. alright.

nyj over TEN - no clue.

buf over NE - i'll go contrarian, too. new england's not exactly great against the number anyway.

bal over TAM - i keep taking the road team. this is bad. but chris simms has four of his texas buddies' initials tattooed on his ankle, which is reason enough to load up against him all year long.

KC over cin - i think that both of these defenses are pretty bad. give me KC in a 34-27 shootout.

sea over DET - sorry, erik.

CAR over atl - steve smith is questionable. if he's out, then carolina's offense is severely handicapped, which means vegas will make a lot of money on people who take the falcons. carolina's d will score twice for my fantasy team en route to a 24-13 win. carolina loves me.

phi over HOU - mcnabb loves me, too. get ready for philly to roll for about 10 weeks straight.

no over CLE - ...and i'm proud to be an american. while cleveland was busy enjoying the freedom purchased in dead-soldier-from-roadside-bomb currency, new orleans has been preparing to go chocolate city all over the browns. (redundant?) in a surprise tactic, the saints flood the field since they have the only player involved who can walk on water. reggie bush scores about fifty touchdowns as a dozen or so other players drown. is it worth it? hell yes, america, hell yes.

dal over JAX - cowboys, cowboys. dallas shuts them out. fred taylor breaks every bone in his body as he drops from the sky during special player introductions.

chi over GB - favre shows up drunk and loaded up on pills. when they wear off, he throws three picks and tries to light himself on fire at midfield. oh, but the fans still love him.

ARI over sf - as darth vader said, all too easy.

WAS over minn - i have plenty of reasons to root against minnesota this year. fuck the redskins anyway, though.

sd over OAK - the philip rivers all pro era starts monday. i just hope that he doesn't pick up any bad habits from being on the same field as aaron brooks. san diego all the way.

BONUS: AFC west 4 team parlay - den, sd, kc and the kc/cin over

alfredo said...

by the way, philly is the big bet.

Bob said...

fredo, you need to pick the indy/NYG game.

Erik said...

Way to hit the ground running for the season, Bob, with a huge, giant L.

But, I guess it's only fair to spot you the Mia/Pit game since I didn't make my Steelers prediction clear enough before the start of the game. But it's quite obvious now -- the Dolphins should have gone with Harrington.

Here's the rest of my playing-along picks:

den over STL

TEN over nyj

NE over buf -- you're insane, Buf doesn't score more than 10 here, and NE will put up plenty of points against this pathetic defense

TAM over bal -- white quarterbacks are the best

cin over KC -- but Palmer has at most 6 weeks in him. If he goes out in this game, I wouldn't be surprised

sea over DET -- the NFL's conspiracy against the Lions is once again confirmed with this schedule. What the fuck.

CAR over atl

phi over HOU -- seriously, who let Houston get a franchise in the first place?

no over CLE -- I see plenty of rushing touchdowns here for both teams, and I like the Saints running backs as much as I hate the Mistake by the Lake

JAX over dal -- I don't care if TO catches 3 touchdowns in his Dallas debut -- Leftwich is going to have a field day at home here. Sorry, Bob, Peter King is a moron and so is the Dallas front office.

chi over GB -- 8 interceptions between Farve and Grossman, 7 for Farve and one for Grossman.

ARI over sf

NYG over ind -- I say the NFL surprises everyone in the Manning Bowl and throws this one to the younger hick

WAS over min

sd over OAK -- what the hell is wrong with you, Bob? The team with the superior defense, running back, offensive line, tight end, and kicker just can't get past the juggernaut that his Aaron Brooks? You're right, everyone must be crazy to pick sd here. Possibly.

Enjoy watching me hit every one of these picks here in week 1, guys, then prepare to bow to the greatest football genius representing the 805.

alfredo said...

give me indy since it is the regular season and all, though both mannings are spoiled brat cockrabbits who threaten to ruin the nfl with their douchetastic fuckhead faces.

alfredo said...


$4 on my AFC west parlay and

$4 on phi/chi/ind/ARI

$2 on phi/den/ARI/sea-DET UNDER/KC-cin OVER/OAK (jinx)

by the way - welcome on board, erik. you have a good chance...against bob.

alfredo said...

fuck. i'm going to go ahead and say that it will be a miracle if i hit a parlay all year. i feel like it's been forever. on the bright side, philly won me some good cash this weekend. alright.

alfredo said...