it looks like the guaranteed victory season has gotten off to an inauspicious start. the first week was one of the more strange week ones i can remember. home teams sucked last week, both in real life and against the spread. furthermore, the schedule featured a bunch of good teams taking care of business on the road against bad teams, so it's hard to take away any impressions about last week in terms of how good teams are going to be. for example, do we really learn anything about the bears after a 26-0 win over the horrible packers? ditto with the chargers killing the raiders on monday night. anyways, i got off to a bad start with a 7-10 record (.412) including hitting my fifty dollar bet (1-0 1.000), while fredo also got his fifty dollar bet (1-0, 1.000) and started the year 10-7 (.588). erik on the other hand didn't fare any better than me and finished 6-9. if you count the miami game than we tied. either way, he's still a big douchebag. i play him in fantasy this week and i am going to freakin' destroy him. anyways, in the second part of the scoring, fredo missed all of his wacky parlays, while i hit on my three team parlay, which really makes me wish that i had been in vegas this weekend. anyways, as of right now, fredo has $160 in his account, and i, by virtue of hitting the three team parlay get 6-1 on a five dollar bet. losing my 4 team cancels out the money betted, so i'm up to $200 bucks. anyways, let's get on with the picks. as always, the spreads are from caesar's and home team in caps.
oak (+12.5) over BAL (o/u - 34)
i know, i know, picking the raiders really was a stupid move last week. but sometimes, you have to take the left field pick, because there's almost always a game that goes exactly the way it should. anyways, this is the first of several very large numbers on the board. let's see if the whole away team covering thing keeps up, and seriously, how good can the ravens be? although several prominent writers like peter king and eric allen think that the ravens are back to their super bowl defense days with ray lewis seemingly at 100%. as much as i hated the raiders last week, however, i just can't give up that many points to anyone, except to...
IND (-12.5) over hou (o/u - 47)
for one second, houston looked like they might have something last week. they took the opening kickoff and scored a touchdown on a good philly defense. and then reality set in and mario williams sucked ass, while the running game sucked even more. we obviously can't judge bush versus williams right now but let's just say someone seems to have the upper hand early. seriously, once, mario williams ends up on anther team, we should take away the franchise from houston. indy all the way.
CIN (-10.5) over cle (o/u - 42)
did i mention that there were a lot of big numbers this week? what do you make of the bengals beating the chiefs? sure they beat them handily, but really shouldn't they have beaten them by fifty points? i had better plans in mind for the browns this year, but they looked pretty awful last week. in the battle of teams from ohio, the single worst state in the union, i'll take the bengals here.
buf (+6.5) over MIA (o/u -37)
this could very well be an extremely knee jerk reaction to miami's performance against the steelers, but man , i thought they looked like dogshit. their defense couldn't stop the run or charlie effin batch. and as for the bills, well, they choked it away at the end, but they looked like they might be a little better than expected last week. we'll go with the bills, but like i said, it's possible that i'm just overreacting to last week here.
det (+8.5) over CHI (o/u -32)
i'm getting nervous about taking so many road teams, but this one seems about right to me as well. i thought the lions looked really good on defense against the seahawks...can it be much harder to stop the bears offense? i'm not saying the lions win, but that's just a lot of points to give up, so gimme detroit here.
car (pk) over MIN (o/u -37.5)
seriously, somebody stop the madness with all of these road teams. look, the vikes looked ok, and hopefully chester taylor can turn his 31 carries a game into fantasy gold for me, but i just think that everyone's super bowl pick will be just fine once steve smith gets into the fold. i'll take carolina.
nyg (+3) over PHI (o/u - 42)
seriously, this is getting ridiculous with the road teams. ok, here's the deal. the giants were going to lose that game to the colts no matter what. and philly was going to win that game against the texans no matter what. so if you ask me, both of these teams are exactly the same on paper, so when in doubt, take the points.
ATL (-5.5) over tam (o/u - 35.5)
seriously, michael vick looked hot last week. while chris simms did not look so hot. you know when you think about it, gruden and simms deserve each other. atlanta all the way.
no (-1.5) over GB (o/u -38)
brett farvre is become as easy money as they come in the NFL these days, unless i have a really good reason not to do so, i'm always gonna bet against favre this season.
SFO (+3) over stl (o/u -44)
i have no idea about this one. i will say this, san fran's offense looked pretty ok with frank gore in there as the number one guy. and st. louis isn't going to get it done with only their kicker scoring.
ari (+7) over SEA (o/u -47)
again, i have very little feel for games this week since last week was so ambiguous, but i just think that number is a little big if arizona is supposed to be that surprise team this year.
ne (-6.5) over NYJ (o/u -37)
brady and dillon come back with a vengeance this week. i know everyone loves how the jets played last week, but i'm pretty sure that can't last.
ten (+12) over SD (o/u -38)
ok, i know this seems crazy, but i didn't see anything out of rivers to make me think that they're going to be able to rely on him to not make any mistakes. unless marty plans to run the ball exclusively this year, then at some point, i think we're going to see failure. not that the titans are really any good, but they have a better secondary than the raiders. san diego wins, but i think the titans barely cover however.
DEN (-10.5) over kc (o/u -39)
this line troubles me quite a bit. denver looked hella bad last week, but i'm just going to chalk that up to jake being jake. however, i think that the chiefs have big problems as they really couldn't get the running game going at all last week, and this week with trent green out, they're really going to need it. but at the same time, you're still betting with the snake here? aughhh! gimme denver.
was (+6.5) over DAL (o/u -37)
just going for the jinx here people. stay away from this one.
pit (-2.5) over JAX (o/u -37.5)
looks like i was wrong about pittsburgh. they look awesome, especially that defense. however, i read that polamalu is quiestionable for this game. if that's the case, then stay away, but otherwise, this one is going to be another blowout on monday night. gimme fifty on the steelers.
again, i'm pressed for time, so i'll have to get my parlays in a comment later.