9.23.2006

bobby the gook season 3, week 3

man do i suck in so many different ways. first, i really dropped the ball on blogging this week. there's plenty i missed too, but all i can say is that i've been busy. the GF is back in town and i've been spending time with her, so i have a legitimate excuse. i also sucked with last week's pick, while fredo was stellar. i know nothing about football. anyways, today is move-in day for HK so i don't really have a whole lot of time. so let's just get right to it. last week, i went 7-10, missing my big bet, while fredo was 13-4 hitting his big bet. that brings the two week standings to me: 14-20 ( .412) and 1-1 (.500) on the big bet; fredo: 23-11 (.676) and 2-0 (1.000) on the big bet. parlay wise, i lost 10 bucks so i'm at $190, while fredo lost 20 to brin his account balance to $140 as always, numbers from caesar's and home team in caps.

BUF (-6) over nyj (o/u - 34.5)
how about the bills defense? a wise woman once told me that the bills will always break your heart, but so far this year they've looked a lot better than advertised. i still think that losman sucks, but i just don't believe in the jets. i like the under a lot on this one as well.


PIT (-2) over cin (o/u -43)
yeah, big ben looked like ass last week. but at the same time, their defense still only gave up 9 points. not that the jags are the same kind of offensive juggernaut that the bengals are supposed to be, but i just really like the steelers defense at home.

jax (-7) over IND (o/u - 43)
i really don't know about this pick. the jags look like a legitimate team so far. and they always seem to play the colts tough. however, the line started at 8.5 so i'm a little worried about this one.

ten (+10.5) over MIA (o/u - 35.5)
that's just to many points to give up when your offense can barely muster 10 points a game. seriously, they're calling for joey harrington in miami. how bad do you have to be to have joey harrington breathing down your neck. jason whitlock wrote an interesting bit in his last NFL column about how black qb's always have more pressure on them when a white guy is the backup. seriously, joey harrington. anyways, a must win for the dolphins, but i think that the titans can score at least 10 points, which means that miami has to score 22 points, which is a tough order for a crappy offense. p.s. eff you nick saban for giving carries to lee suggs, which makes my ronnie brown less valuable fantasy wise.

HOU (+4) over was (o/u - 37.5)
the texans seemed to be able to move the ball decently late, and washington's whole offense is in complete disarray. those skins' corners suck balls. look for a big game for andre johnson and look for the redskins season go down the crapper. oh, and the over, big time.

chi (-3.5) over MIN (o/u - 35)
wow, no respect for the great play of the bears defense. i guess the vikings look ok, but they've beat washington who is not that good, and the panthers basically gave away last week's game. this seems like a sensible 50 dollar bet, so i'll make the bears my big bet of the week.

car (-3) over TAM (o/u - 34)
this seems like another easy bet. i'm pretty sure that steve smith is a go this week, and chris simms really really really really is regressing. but for some reason, most writers can't seem to admit that he crumbles under even the least bit of pressure. when it's all said and done i think that chris simms is going to go down as the guy that people always give a chance and simms will always let those people down.

DET (-6.5) over gb (o/u - 39)
last week, as soon as the games started, i felt pretty bad about my detroit pick. that was the worst pick last week. yet here i am, betting on jon kitna again. what is my problem? actually, what is brett favre's problem. i think that the fact that he looked ok on a couple of drives last week is causing the weinies of football writers all over the nation go crazy. don't believe the hype, it's going to be a sequel.

bal (-7) over CLE (o/u - 33)
i'm feeling pretty good about the ravens this day. remember, they're my pick to win their division and if that defense is what is seems to be, they might make a deep playoff run. but i don't really think that's going to happen, i just think that the browns are bad.

ARI (-4.5) over stl (o/u - 44.5)
the rams aren't actually as bad i thought they were going to be. steve jackson looks great this year, but i don't see much happening on defense. on the flip side, the cards aren't probably as good as i thought they were going to be, but i think that god will reward kurt warner's piety with 3 touchdowns this week.

nyg (+3.5) over SEA (o/u - 43)
i'm just real impressed with the giants so far. while seattle may be the most underwhelming 2-0 in the league. this could go either way, but after last weeks comeback win, i think that the giants will avenge their horrible loss against the seahawks from last year.

phi (6.5) over SFO (o/u - 42)
bay area fans are the biggest knee jerkers in the world. almost every san fran fan i talked to last week think that the niners are going to score 30+ a game from here on out. that's just stupid. d-mac shows what a great qb this week with a monster game.

NE (-6.5) over den (o/u - 39)
the pats did come awfully close to blowing the spread last week, but brady just was himself and wasted 8 minutes of the clock with dink and dunk bs. on the other side of the ball, the anti-brady, jake, my personal rake really seems like he wants to retire. i wonder if jay cutler will get into this game?

atl (-4) over NO (o/u - 43.5)
the line started out at 2.5 which has to be the whole "first game at the superdome since katrina thing". but it seems that the bettors aren't buying into the emotion thing either. so why would i? if this line were 7.5 i might go with the saints, but i think that michael vick is going to run buckwild on the saints as he continues his quest to win my heart back from ladanian tomlinson.

parlays, i'm going to go crazy here, so bear with me

4 bucks on bal/chi/jax
4 bucks on det/chi/hou-wash over/buff-nyj under
4 bucks on buf/ten/ari/phi/chi/atl

3 comments:

alfredo said...

alrighty-

nyj over BUF - why not? 6 just seems like too many for the bills to cover.

cin over PIT - i thought this was a great bet until i heard about all of cincy's injuries, but i'll stick with it.

IND over jax - only seven? give me sorry-ass peyton at home.

ten over MIA - surely culpepper gives tennessee at least one touchdown. that and a field goal should be good to cover.

HOU over was - washington should win this game, but i'll take the points on underdog sunday.

chi over MIN - i'm getting sick of the vikings, who have to be the luckiest team in the league so far. hopefully the bears make quick work of this one and put brad johnson on a stretcher by halftime.

car over TAM - fifty? fifty. tampa can't move the ball and can't play run defense, meaning they are dogshit.

gb over DET - i'm not sure why i flip-flopped on this one. for some reason i can see favre hopped up on amphetamines taking it to the lions for old time's sake.

bal over CLE - cle might be the most boring team in the league.

SEA over nyg - new york is another lucky-ass team that's getting shut down this week.

stl over ARI - totally jinxing them. i am pulling against the rams all year long.

phi over SFO - i'm a little worried about philly losing kearse and also about how bad their secondary looked last week, but surely they can beat the niners by seven...if there's a god in heaven, anyway.

den over NE - why do i think shanahan is just fucking with me? this pick is just a personal challenge to the bastard. ignore it and stay away from this game if you know what's good for you.

atl over NO - atlanta shows new orleans where the real chocolate city is.

$5 - Hou-was OVER/PIT-cin UNDER/jax-IND UNDER

$3 - chi/car/bal

$2 - phi-SFO OVER/SEA-nyg UNDER/chi/car

after these go down the toilet on sunday morning, i'll probably post an evening parlay or two in the best vegas tradition.

Erik said...

bad news for you, guys, i'm back with the world's most accurate picks, backed up by my towering football intellect.

nyj over BUF -- no way buffalo covers

cin over PIT -- I think this is Palmer's last week on the field. And Cowher had best put Charlie Batch back out there.

MIA over ten -- Saban had best put Joey Harrington in.

IND over jax -- jax will win their home game against these clowns, though

was over HOU -- what is wrong with you bob

chi over MIN -- I just saw that the Goose is sideline reporting this one. Fuck.

TAM over car -- just 3 points, I say Tampa surprises us.

gb over DET -- once again, our #2 corner and the best safety in Detroit history are out with BS injuries and family problems. Farve will pass all day.

BAL over cle -- eff ohio

ARI over stl

SEA over nyg

phi over SFO

NE over den

NO over atl -- because the NFL is becoming the NBA. End the replay review!

MJK said...

Thanks so much for referring to me as a wise woman. Don't ever let the Bills suck you in - they have broken hearts all over western NY, and will continue to do so. Better luck with the rest of your picks. MJK