9.29.2006

bobby the gook season 3, week 4

oh man am i horrible at handicapping football. my guaranteed victory statements at the beginning of the season look pretty awful right about now. i'm beginning to think that i'm the daunte culpepper of football handicapping. for those first three years i was nails, but now i've been floundering for the past two years. i wish i had an explanation, but is there ever a good explanation for unfulfilled potential other than just simple tragedy? i went 2-12-1 last week, which you would be hard pressed to do even if you tried. i also whiffed on the big bet. for the season that brings me 16-32-1 (.327) and 1-2 on the big bet (.333). the worst part is that i missed an opportunity as fredo only went 7-6-1 last week. apparently, he forgot to pick a game as his fifty dollar bet, but it's not a problem as i am eliminating the big bet from this part of the game and i'll explain in a bit.. anyways, that last week brings fredo's season total to 30-17-1 (.625) . taking out the big bets from the frist two weeks, fredo is 29-16-1 (.630), while without the big bets, i am 15-30-1 (.326)

erik got around to joining our little gang bang here and in a incomprehensible twist of complete and sheer luck, he bested both me and fredo, going 8-5-1. what can i say, every a-hole from detroit has his day. anyways, the two week standings between erik and i are me: 9-18-1 (.321) and erik: 14-14-1 (.483).

bonus wise, fredo and i missed all of our parlays, with me losing 12 bucks and fredo losing 10. our current accounts check in at $178 and $130. anyways, after some discussion we've decided to change the way the bonus round works. instead of only doing parlays, we're going to let fred and me bet on pretty much any pro-football game against the spread or over unders. we're not going to do any straight up betting since i'm just too lazy to track down money lines, but we'll pretend that our imaginary casino just gives you straight up odds and doesn't charge a transaction fee. that is if you bet 50 bucks, you win 50 bucks. again, the whole point of this exercise is to simulate vegas as much as possible and we'd never go to vegas and just bet on parlays. so instead of 10 bucks a week, we're going to be required to bet 100 bucks a week. of course we're going to add 90 dollars per week for all of the remaining weeks in the pro-football season (14 weeks x $90 = $1260). and we can still do parlays if we want and those will pay out as they did before. we're not going to do college because the lines are going to change from day to day and i'm not going to post all of the college games' lines. besides, college football sucks. anyways, with our additional funds i now have $1438 and fredo has $1390. this is going to take the place of the fifty dollar bet, since now we actually will be able to make fifty dollar bets. man that's a long intro to read before getting to the picks. as always, point spreads from caesar's and home team in caps.

NYJ (+9.5) over ind (o/u - 46)
i hope that i'm wrong and that i'm jinxing this because i have all sorts of colts starting this week for my fantasy teams. plus that's just a whole lot of points to give up on the road.

BAL (+2.5) over sd (o/u - 33.5)
what's it going to take for me to give the chargers any respect? well i can't do anything after a bye week. if the chargers win this week then i will be more than happy to admit that i was wrong. but i forsee bad times for philip rivers in this game. he's a little better than i thought he'd be, but i'm pretty sure he's never faced a defense like this.

BUF (-1) over min (o/u -34.5)
did everyone see jp losman after the bills lost last week? he was all indignant and whining about being tired of people calling the bills losers or some crap like that. and inexplicably i saw at least 2 or 3 sports talking heads saying that they like to see that from a quarterback. puh-leeze, this guy really hasn't shown me much at all. he had 300 yards last week, but that is the first time he's ever shown a bit of anything. plus he couldn't find anyone in the end zone. the sooner that buffalo cuts ties with this assclown the better. that said, i still like buffalo's defense. the vikes seem to still not be able to do much with the running game. 3 ypc just ain't gonna get it done.

dal (-9.5) over TEN (o/u -37)
remember that thing about nine and a half points being too much for a road team. that rule doesn't apply when you have suicidal wide receivers on america's greatest sports franchise ever playing against kerry collins. this is where dallas is going to start blowing people out of the water with their defense. i know i'm jinxing it, but dammit, i think we all see it coming.

KC (-7) over sfo (o/u -40.5)
something about teams after the bye week at home...

no (+7) over CAR (o/u -42)
you know, both teams really showed something out there last week. i mean carolina finally put together something that resembled a decent offensive plan and the saints, well, aside from having the NFL on their side actually didn't look that bad. i think that emotion will carry over a little bit this week, but only enough to keep it close. by the way, i'm working on a little piece about how the NFL has unabashedly exploited the katrina mess for their own personal gain and profit, while screwing black people and poor people at the same time! look for it in the next couple of days.

ATL (-7.5) over ari (o/u -41)
you can't tell me that the falcoms aren't super pissed off that the NFL did everything they could to make sure that the saints won that game last week. and you can't tell me that the cards are better off with kurt warner fumbling away the football twice in the last five minutes. take the under too.

HOU (+3.5) over mia (o/u -40.5)
why would anyone ever take miami again? when in doubt, take the points.

STL (-6) over det (o/u -44)
lesson learned part 1: after taking detroit for three straight weeks, i've learned my lesson. that teams is not only bad, but it stinks to high hell. they just cut cory bradford because mike furrey has outplayed him. detroit is looking at another high draft pick this year and hopefully someone will mercifully put matt millen out of his misery and het him out of there.

CIN (-6) over ne (o/u -46)
the only thing that worries me about this game is that every year there always seems to be a point where a lot of people are talking about how the pats are done and that they had a great run, and then they go out and reel off four straight or something. it seems like a lot of people are saying that kinda stuff right now. i'm taking the bengals and i expect big things from carson in his last week of having a healthy knee, but i'd stay away from this one.

WAS (+3) over jax (o/u -34)
i thought that the jags actually didn't look that bad in the first half of last week's game. and as mentioned before in this column, clinton portis is what makes the redskins offense go. you could go either way on this one as well, so i'm going to take the points.

cle (-3) over OAK (o/u -34)
lesson learned part 2: i realize now the folly of putting any kind of faith in the raiders. from here on out unless the raiders are getting a ridiculous amount of points, i'm always going to pick against the raiders. this team embarrasses me.

CHI (-3) over sea (o/u -35)
the seahawks blew out the giants last week, but this week they face a real defense. like what i saw out of grossman last week as well. this is going to be a good football game for sure. i'm glad it's the sunday night game.

PHI (-11) over gb (o/u -48)
philly rolls in a big way, which is troublesome for me since the team that one of the teams that i am playing in fantasy this week has mcnabb going. green bay is going to get destroyed, if for no other reason than it will set up things perfectly for next weeks death match of the eagles vs. t.o. the nfl is smart and will not do anything to that might hurt the build up to what will be easily the most hyped game of the season.

bonus time - gimme fifty bucks on the browns, that's right, i'm putting my biggest bet on a team that's 0-3. gimme another twenty on the eagles to cover and ten on the sd/bal under. 5 dollar parlay on chi/cle/philly. and another 5 on cle/atl & ari under/dal/was. i already like this new format alot better.

6 comments:

alfredo said...

wasn't i 8-5-1 last week? - nyj, cin, ten, gb, sea, stl, phi, den

Erik said...

I'd love to tell you how I do this, guys, but there are some things that you're just not ready for. Call me after you break .500, Bob.

NYJ over ind - I don't think indy covers. two teams with shitty running backs. give me the under.

sd over BAL - sure, sd hasn't met a real team yet, but LT has 8 million reasons to perform well in this one.

min over BUF - yeah, bob, but did you seen min nearly trash Chicago and their defense last week?

dal over TEN - but T.O. uses his 2-way to text 8 year old boys back in Dallas after every touchdown. ESPN's slowmax camera reveals that T.O. is texting "do I make you a little horny?" to some 5th grader. Somehow, Bob finds a way to explain how T.O. is still going to kick ass against the Eagles.

KC over sfo

CAR over no -- by the way, the NFL ordered Houston not to draft Reggie so that they could put him in New Orleans. Look it up. but there's no way they beat Carolina at home, Bob. That would be too obvious.

ATL over ari

mia over HOU -- if Culpepper can't do something here, get ready for the new Joey Harrington.

STL over det -- yeah, I'm going to start driving around naked.

CIN over ne -- i'm with bob, stay away, but did you see Rudi last week?

jax over WAS -- 3 points? Byron Leftwich, my fantasy QB, will free kick a field goal if necessary. I'd get the points for that, right?

OAK over cle -- I haven't learned the lesson yet, Bob.

CHI over sea -- game of the week. I say the home team wins here, especially the home team that doesn't have to face 2005's Shaun Alexander. What the hell is it with that damn Madden cover?

PHI over gb - number of times Theismann mentions McNabb's amazing performance: 5, one for each touchdown. Theismann mentions of Farve's amazing career: 46,782.

I'll take 100 bucks on the Bears.

alfredo said...

NYJ over ind - let me be the first to say what a courageous gamer reggie wayne is for playing this week. i hate football announcers.

sd over BAL - if baltimore is so great, why did they nearly lose to cleveland at home last week? for that matter, if they're so great, what are they doing with a quarterback from last century? i guess you could ask that about a lot of teams. (sadly, dallas is among those.)

BUF over min - the vikings luck will start to run out.

dal over TEN - the cowboys reward my fantasy team with twelve safeties and a couple of touchdowns. the TO text message scandal blows over in a case of mistaken identity. it was congressman mark "TO" (touchin' orafice) foley who was texting 16-year old boys about their horniness. like everyone in congress isn't doing that.

sf over KC - kansas city has done nothing this season to be favored by 7 over anyone.

no over CAR - this is a pick against carolina as much as for new orleans. why couldn't they put tampa bay away last week? screw them.

ATL over ari - the nfl pays atlanta back for throwing monday's game by giving them a home game against captain fumbles.

HOU over mia - miami is a bitch.

det over STL - ye of little faith, erik.

CIN over ne - a cakewalk for the bengals. the drinking and driving starts in the third quarter after palmer's 5th TD of the day.

jax over WAS - borrring.

cle over OAK - cha-ching.(?)

CHI over sea - my only worry is that the seahawks are better without alexander. he didn't run very hard, at least compared to me. anyway, chicago should TCB at home.

gb over PHI - like favre isn't going to garbage time it up and lose by ten to cover the 11 points.

ATL (-7.5) $50
Cle (-3)$25
san diego (-2.5) $25
HOU (-3.5) $20
det (+6) $10
no/CAR OVER (42) $50
cle-OAK UNDER (34) $20
det-STL UNDER (44) $20

$15 parlay BUF-min UNDER/ATL/HOU-mia OVER
$15 parlay NYJ-ind OVER/dal/cle-OAK under/cin

alfredo said...

in the best spirit of vegas, give me:

$100 CHI

$15 CHI-sea OVER

alfredo said...

clutch gambling.

Bob said...

regarding the first comment, fredo did go 8-5-1 in week 3. i'll correct the standings in the next post.