as ll cool j once said, don't call it a comeback. actually, you shouldn't because i'm still far behind alfredo, but i enjoyed quite a day in the football sun last week as i went 12-1-1. that's right, i was one away from the mythical perfecto week. but no complaints from me, just the quiet satisfaction that i kicked some major ass last week. not that fredo did bad per se, as he went 8-6 last week. fredo can be satisfied that he's been much more consistent than me thus far. but he can't be satisfied with me shaving 5 games off of his lead (by the way, the fact that i used the word "shaving" in this post will guarantee that this blog is going to get about 500 more hits than it normally would thanks to all the pervs doing searches for porn). anyways, i goofed last week as fredo actually went 8-5-1 in week 3 and not 7-6-1. anyways, the corrections bring our current standings to me: 28-31-1 (.466); fredo: 38-21-1 (.633). he's still got a double digit lead, but if i just keep going 13-1 every week, i should be able to catch him fairly soon. but seriously, last week kept this thing interesting for at least another week. erik, was pretty average at 7-6-1 as well. in our little side pissing match, erik is 21-20-2 (.488) and i'm 20-22-2 (.455). so it turns out that last week only just made up for the 2 win week that i had last week.
even more interesting was our vegas portion of game, where i would have won big if the browns had covered but they pushed so i only won a couple of individual bets for 30 bucks and missed all of my parlays. that adds $20 to my season total bringing me to $1458 (+$28 for the year). fredo went with the "more is more" approach and made a ton of bets. it backfired a little and he had a rough morning with his crazy bets and lost 85 bucks, but as you can see in the comments section of last week, he did some clutch gambling and got back up to +$30 on the strength of the chicago bears big victory. that brings his total to $1420 (-$10 overall). but that doesn't change the fact that dammit, i just kicked some effin' ass last week.
anyways, there's a real interesting board this week so let's get on with the show. the point spreads and over/unders are from caesar's and the home teams are in caps. let's get going.
IND (-18.5) over ten (over/under - 48)
ughhh, i hate these big point spreads. i hate giving up this many points, but the titans gave up 45 points to the cowboys, who have a pretty good offense. you figure that the colts probably have about the same caliber offense, if not better, so i'm basically betting that tennessee can't score more than three touchdowns, which seems like a safe bet to me.
NYG (-4.5) over was (over/under - 46)
is it me or does this line seem fishy? or perhaps i should say the line is more like a lobster since you use TRAPS to catch lobsters. why would the giants be favored over the skins who had a good win against a decent jaguars team? i guess there's home field, but the whole home-team-after-bye-week worked out pretty well last week with KC, so i'll put this to the test. p.s. clinton portis is at it again.
MIN (-6.5) over det (over/under -39.5)
not that i like this one that much, but i won't pick the lions, especially not on the road.
NO (-6.5) over tam (over/under - 35)
to paraphrase erik's latest bon mott, "hi, i'm bruce gradkowski, starting qb of the tampa bay buccaneers." and let's not forget how sorry jon gruden is.
stl (-3) over GB (over/under - 47)
i hate not taking favre as the home dog here, and i still haven't jumped on the st. louis bandwagon yet, but the packers actually didn't play the eagles that close in the first half. the score should have been 21-6 at halftime were it not for the buckhalter fumbles. remember when you could always feel good about betting on favre at lambeau...yeah, me neither, that was such a long time ago.
NE (-10) over mia (over/under - 36.5)
ok, bear with me as i take you through my completely convoluted logic. this is basically a must win for the dolphins. if they go 1-4, their season is completely over. the NFL wants and needs nick saban to succeed. the patriots however, are yesterday's news. sure they beat up on the bengals, but i think the bengals are set up for a late season slide where they'll show themselves as what they truly are, a middle of the pack team. i don't know if the dolphins are going to win. after all, nick saban won't say whether he'll start harrington or culpepper until game time. oh god, i just talked myself out of this. if we think that harrington is going to revive this team, we need to use the same kind of analysis as we should with culpepper. and that is, he is what he is, a very mediocre quarterback that will probably be out of football in a few years. gimme the pats here.
CHI (-10.5) over buf (over/under - 34.5)
what's with all these big freakin' point spreads? ummm, i just don't know about this one. on the one hand, i can see buffalo just pounding the rock with mcgahee which would be good for my fantasy squad. anyways, running the ball seems to be what you need to do with the bears since it is very clear to me that you can't pass on the bears. but then again, i'm starting to wonder if chicago is going to turn into that team whose train you just keep riding the whole season long.
CAR (-8) over cle (over/under - 37.5)
the browns suck.
nyj (+7) over JAX (over/under - 37)
one, i haven't taken an underdog yet, and two, that was a real bad loss for the jags i think. i mean the jets just lost to peyton manning, but two, i think that the skins showed last week that the jags defense has some problems.
kc (-4) over ARI (over/under - 39.5)
i've said this before and i'll say it again. i think that when it's all said and done, matt leinart is going to be a decent NFL quarterback. but not this week.
SFO (-3) over oak (over/under - 40)
dear northern california, i hate your attitude and i hate your football teams.
PHI (-2) over dal (over/under - 43.5)
i know, i know....i feel like a traitor believe me. but here's the deal. first, as you might guess, i'm going with the jinx here. second, from what i've seen, the eagles are actually really kickin' some ass. fredo and i were discussing this and what is getting lost in this whole T.O. returns thing is that philly has the best qb in the league going, and dallas has drew bledsoe. it's seems to me pretty much all other things in this game are equal, and if you had to bet on either mcnabb or bledsoe, who are you gonna take? that being said, i am really looking forward to the game. it's going to be a complete circus which i always feel is amusing to watch. and i am going to be rooting like hell for the cowboys. on a side note, one thing i'm not looking forward to is the shots of the crowd. fredo confirmed this for me, but last week during the monday night game, every time i they showed the crowd, i had the same thought, "jesus that is one grotesquely obese person". fredo thought that the women were pretty ugly as well, which is strange when you consider that the cheerleaders are some of the hottest in the leauge, but geez, philadelphia, take a look in the mirror before you go out and maybe don't eat that second cheesesteak you fat effer.
SD (-3) over pit (over/under - 37)
everyone is talking about how big ben's problems have been at the heart of how the steelers have played this year. maybe we're just seeing what happens when a team overacheives one year and then regresses back to the mean. san diego on the other hand, really needs to let philip rivers start throwing the ball. i don't think he's that great, but i know for sure that he won't be good if you only let him throw only dump passes to the fullback. i think that this comes down to LT vs. the pittsburgh defense. and since i heart LT, i'll take the chargers.
bal (+4) over DEN (over/under - 33.5)
denver's defense looks great to me, and they are the home team after the bye. but i don't like the prospect of jake plummer against the ravens' defense. seriously, jake plummer can just suck it.
since it's the weekend of the red river shootout, i'm going to make an exception to the no college betting rule for this game only. texas is a 4.5 point favorite over the sooners. mack brown - vince young = same old mack brown. give me 50 bucks on the sooners. hunnamanoo maneck maneck! my NFL bets:
CAR (-8) - $50
kc (-4) - $50
PHI (-2) - $50 (that one kills me)
IND/ten over (48) - $25
$5 anti-crappy team parlay - CAR/SFO/stl/MIN
$10 parlay - SD/PHI/kc/NO
$10 parlay SD/PHI/ARI/NO
only two underdogs this week. i'm a wuss.