10.13.2006

bobby the gook season 3, week 6

i'm still trying to get my head over this cory lidle thing. i mean seriously, cory lidle was the definition of mediocre athlete. 7 teams in 9 years. yet he dies in a horrific accident and the networks can't get enough of it. granted he spiced up the whole deal by crashing a plane into a building in the post 9/11 era, but i can't help but think that if he weren't a new york yankee, the media just wouldn't give a damn. anyways, it's just as well, as it was a slow week for our little game here. there were three pushes last week, which may not seem like a lot, but in terms of this game, where fredo and i only end up disagreeing on a handful of teams, it makes all the difference. both fredo and i went 6-5-3 last week. so if those three pushes are different by one point, either of us could have been 9-5 or 6-8. in any case, no ground made up for me, but on a positive note, fredo and i came in third this week in our local pool and won fifty bucks. good times. anyways, on the season, fredo is 44-26-5 (.587), while i am 34-36-5 (.453). erik beat us both (i can't explain it) and went 7-4-3. so in that matchup, erik is 28-24-5 (.491) and i'm 26-27-5 (.448).

fredo went really nuts in the vegas portion of the game and ended up pulling $250 out of his ass by wagering 300 bucks on the broncos at the last second, to not only get out of the red but also to win a bunch of money. this after three previous rounds of betting to make up for his poor initial bets. fredo made 1000 bucks worth of bets and only came out ok on his very last bet. which leads me to think that fredo is not taking this part very seriously, since we would never bet so much in order to try and get in the black. maybe we'd bet enough to break even, but we'd never ever bet 300 bucks on the monday night game right before we leave vegas. so i'm going to apply a new rule, a spending limit. we are limited to 200 bucks a week. to reiterate, we must wager at least 100 dollars, but no more than 200 dollars. if fredo wants to go crazy and bet on the sunday or monday night game, he can, but he can't go apeshit and try to make up with pretend money. anyways, i broke just plain even. so on the year, i've still got $1458 (+$28 on the year), while fredo is at 1670 (+240) on the year. i'll go ahead and let him keep his ill gotten gains from last week, but from now on, 200 bucks is the limit. anyways, let's get started on the picks, i've got a busy weekend ahead of me and i need to knock these out. as always, point spreads and over/unders from caesar's and home team in caps.

CORRECTION (10/13/06, 5:30PM) - i'm terrible at math apparently and fredo actually didn't make any money as he broke even as well. so that puts him at 1420(-$10) on the year. i also did some thinking and decided that putting a cap on wagers doesn't make sense. so i'm just going to mandate that all wagers be in before the start of the sunday night game, which is usually 5:15PM PDT.

cin (-5.5) over TAM (o/u - 43)
that gradowski kid looked ok last week as tampa covered the spread. however, his name is still gradowski and he was just playing an ordinary saints defense that needed a punt return for a td from reggie bush to pull it out. never take crappy qb's on the road, and even though this is a home game for the bucs, cinnci is coming off the bye and they really needed it for chad johnson to get completely right.

WAS (-10.5) over ten (o/u - 39)
it's tempting to take the titans after they played the colts so tough last week and washington looked so bad. however, the more i think about it, the more i think that the titans really just suck and their defense just caught the colts on a bad day and i think that their offense had about as good of a day as it can have. the line started at 9, so i'm inclined to think i'm right about this one.

DAL (-12.5) over hou (o/u - 43)
i don't want to talk about it.

DET (+1) over buf (o/u - 40)
this could go either way, but the way i figure it, the lions aren't so bad that they'll go 0-6. although i have to say that this is the best chance they have for a win so they better make the most of it.

sea (-3) over STL (o/u - 45)
i really don't have a clue on this one. and i know i should take the points, but here are my arguments. first, the rams are overachieving while the seahawks are underachieving, and i think that things will balance out this week. second, hasselbeck has had a couple of weeks to figure stuff out with deion branch. third, the rams are on a three game winning streak and seriously, that seems to be about the ceiling of what a team of their talent can do. lastly, the rams win last week was very iffy and were it not for brett favre being 74 years old, they might have lost to a bad packers team.

ATL (-3) over nyg (o/u - 42)
the giants play the run pretty well (86.5 ypg, 9th in the NFL) but the falcons defend it even better (69.3 ypg, 2nd in the NFL). this is going to be a pretty low scoring affair and the falcons are at home so i'll take mike vick.

phi (-3.5) over NO (o/u - 46.5)
seriously, i'm not going to talk about it.

car (+3) over BAL (o/u - 33.5)
i think that this is the week that the panthers start to show that this might be their year while i think that mcnair is going to continue to regress. i'm not sure if billick has pulled jamal lewis out of the starting lineup, but he should.

NYJ (-2) over mia (o/u - 36)
the dolphins will be better with harrington under center, but crappy qb on the road...as they say in new york, fuggedaboutit.

sd (-10) over SFO (o/u - 42.5)
i'm ready to admit defeat in my prediction about the chargers. they're looking awesome and will probably make it to the AFC championship game. fredo and i can hopefully put this ugly chapter of our relationship behind us and be BFF again. LT is going to go buckwild against the niners.

kc (+7) over PIT (o/u - 36.5)
i don't like this pick a whole lot. who knows what damon huard is going to be like on the road. but i don't think that pittsburgh as currently constituted is a whole touchdown better than the chiefs.

DEN (-15) over oak (o/u - 36.5)
vegas finally got an oakland point spread right. i know that's a lot of points, but on the road, against a clearly superior in every way (even at qb) there's no way the raiders cover.

chi (-11) over ARI (o/u - 39)
leinart looked just fine last week even though the cards lost. however, that bears defense is pretty effing awesome. leinart is a rookie after all, and unless he's captain america, i just don't think leinart is going to be able to get anything going against the bears. as we said last week, why would we stop riding this gravy train?

i'm pretty tired right now, so i'll get my money picks in later.

4 comments:

Ian said...

Bob, it's not every day that the plane of a major league player crashes into a New York building. Now THAT'S a death in a dramatic fashion.

Even so, the reason it's a big deal is that the news stations jumped all over the crash because it was a suspected terrorist attack. Heck, the Dow Jones instantly dropped 70 points because it was a suspected attack. On the ten-point scale, this thing started at about a 9 and then dropped to about a 4 and a half once they realized "Oh, it was only a Yankee."

If Lidle had been shot on the street over his watch, it would have registered at about a 2 on the national scale and a 5 on the baseball scale.

alfredo said...

Bob-

i only made $20 last week. i was down $280 going into monday night, wasn't i? double-check.

as far as lidle goes, it was a big story because no one suspected he was a terrorist. although in retrospect, that al queda is balls deep in the yankee organization should not be a surprise, the bastards.

Bob said...

you are correct fredo. you actually just broke plain even. for parlays, i've been counting pushes as losses. tell me if this is how vegas does it. if not, then i'll recalibrate later. i've adjusted the total amounts in the original post. also, i've amended the rule. it just doesn't make any sense to put a cap on things. what i'm going to do is mandate that all bets be in before the start of the sunday night game, which is typically 5:15 PDT.

Bob said...

$50 on ATL
$50 on phi
$10 on sea/stl under


$20 double digit spread parlay - chi/den/sd
$10 parlay ATL/phi/chi/sd/den
$10 parlay car/nyj/chi/phi