10.27.2006

bobby the gook season 3, week 8

i know that the last two posts have been shitty, but like i said, life's been busy. i feel like i have a lot to say about the state of some teams today, so hopefully that'll kinda make up for it. i've gone back and figured out all of the records for fredo and i for the last two weeks and this is what we look like today. i'm 45-50-6 (.446) and fredo is 56-37-6 (.554). money wise, i lost 150 and then another 70 so i'm now at $1238 (-$192 on the year) and fredo lost 100 the first week for not making bets and then won 10 bucks last week thanks to a three team parlay. that puts him at $1330(-$100 on the year).i really don't know what to do about erik, so i just may disqualify him from the whole deal. erik needs to give me a good reason to keep keeping track of our side show. anyways, let's get on with it. home team in caps and numbers from caesar's.

TEN (-3) over hou (o/u - 41.5)
did anyone see the texans coming out and puttin' a whuppin' on the jags? i guess i should just say that is just how we texans do. not really, since i hate that team. however, i do like alot about the texans offense. especially the way andre johnson and david carr are playing with such inferior talent surrounding them. that defense, with your number #1 overall pick however, is still pretty bad and i can see them not really knowing how to contain the young/henry rushing express. plus tennessee is coming off the bye at home. i like the over a whole freaking lot here people.

PHI (-7) over jax (o/u - 40.5)
not that i am closing the book on the jags chances of making some noise in the playoffs, but if they lose this one, then the season is over for them. as for philly, the last time they got beat in a bad way (to the giants a few weeks ago), they responded with a good win against a quality opponent. i don't see anything different about this situation, and especially since they're at home, this seems like an easy pick. so i guess i am saying that the jags season is basically over.

CIN (-4) over atl (o/u - 44)
does anyone think that the NFL is not a better place with chad johnson running his mouth during the week? didn't think so. i know that michael vick had a "breakout" performance last week, but it seems to me that he has one of those every 4-5 games and then proceeds to spare everyone to death for a few weeks more. i want to...nay, i need to see that touchdown dance from CJ. it would also do my fantasy team some good as well.

NYG (+9.5) over tam (o/u - 40)
it's not that i think that the giants are any good. it's just that the gradkowski kid is going to a relatively tough place to play and as we all know, we shouldn't take crappy qbs on the road. the giants success this year completely maddens me by the way. i just don't see how they're going to keep this up.

sfo (+16) over CHI (o/u - 42)
admittedly, i don't like this pick a whole lot. the truly great teams always respond after lackluster performances, and i suppose that is entirely possible with the bears defense going against a bad team at home, but that's just a whole lot of points for a team that can move the ball pretty well.

ari (+3) over GB (o/u - 44.5)
the cards may have blown a game in an epic way against the bears two weeks ago, but they did cover the spread. i know that they're a mess, but i think that leinart can pull it together for his first win against a crappy team.

KC (pk) over sea (o/u - 38.5)
this one is off the board for some reason, so i'm just going to go with a pick 'em. do you like seneca wallace on the road? i don't either.

NO (-2) over bal (o/u - 37)
i'm beginning to think that there is some credence to the NFL conspiracy that won't let the saints lose at home.

SD (-10) over stl (o/u - 45.5)
just think, if someone not named marty shottenheimer were the coach of the chargers, they might be undefeated right now. the rams are a frisky team who will be challenging to pick against the spread for the rest of the way, but i just can't see the LT not having an epic day after last week's loss. like i said, the truly good teams always bounce back after tough losses and lackluster performances.

pit (-9) over OAK (o/u - 38.5)
the corollary to the truly good team theory is that truly bad teams always revert back to form after overperforming. granted, beating a cards team that was still a little bit on the ropes from a historic loss isn't exactly overperforming, but still they're the worst team in the league. however, i should say that i think that the steelers season is over. i'm starting to think that big ben should change his number to #13. he's supposed to start, but if i were the steelers, i'd make up some frak injury and put him on injured reserve so that he can work on getting his mojo back.

CLE (-2) over nyj (o/u - 37)
either there's some kind of injury for the jets that i'm unaware of or this is a trap. in either case, i don't want to be on the wrong end of this one.

ind (+3) over DEN (o/u - 39.5)
i must be crazy to take the colts against a possibly historic defense. but i just really can't buy that the broncos defense is going to be one of the great scoring defenses of all time when the only person who i think is really that good is champ baily. plus the broncos starting left guard matt lepsis is out which means dwight freeny has a carpool lane to captain kickass, jake the snake. pressure + plummer = lots of ints. one more thing: why oh why is joseph addai not starting yet? anyone who's watching can see that he's ten times better than dominic rhodes.

CAR (-5.5) over dal (o/u - 41)
bill simmons has this thing where he says take the panthers on the road and take the points at home which seems like a good theory, however, let's dissect the dallas cowboys situation a little shall we. last week, when parcells made the call and finally put romo in for bledsoe, i started to panic a little. the only conceivable way for this to work out is if romo threw 3 touchdowns and led the cowboys to an amazing victory. instead he crapped his pants and looked just terrible. i know it looked like the cowboys could move the ball a little better, but the important thing to take away from that loss is that romo is in no way ready to lead a team to the playoffs. in fact after the second int, i muttered to my roommate, "hell just put bledsoe in, it doesn't really matter anymore". this week, i imagine that there has been sports radio chaos. sports radio chaos is when there is a topic that is so polarizing and demoralizing to talk about for the sports radio shows that it drains the life out of all listeners. there is non stop second guessing of parcells, of jerry jones, and everything. the only thing that everyone can agree on is that the offensive line is terrible. no good can come out of sports radio chaos. parcells has started thinking about life after the cowboys and jerry is just fine with that since parcells hasn't done jack shit since his first season here. like i said before, the only possible way that romo was going to work was if he was tom brady and i think it's safe to say that he's no tom brady. i've been in a bad mood all week because of this: the cowboys season is over and they lose out to any team worth a damn the rest of the way. julius peppers is going to eat tony romo's spleen on sunday. bledsoe will probably end up having to come back in. do you see what i mean when i say that no good can come out of this situation?

before we get to the monday night game, let's talk a little bit about terell owens. fredo brought up the point that no matter what terell owens does on the sideline he's screwed. football is an emotional game and any number of players can be seen moving their hands excitedly while talking during the game. but according to all media, when terell owens does it, he's screaming. fredo brought up that this is actually somewhat racist, since if it were a white dude, he'd be praised for trying to fire up his team. even worse, if terell owens is sitting on the bench, not doing anything waiting to go back in, he is described as sulking. i'm not saying terell owens is a saint or anything, but for whatever reason, the media hates him. what is really bizarre about this whole thing is that the only people he's screwed over are other teammates. media people should love him for making their lives easier, but you get blowhards like joe theismann who can't stand it non-white players don't shut up and dance, so they villify him. terell owens is no worse than he was in his first few years in san francisco. and for the media to cover like they are, it's a hatchet job, plain and simple.

ne (-2) over MIN (o/u - 38.5)
this is a really good number. the patriots run seems to be coming together. besides which seems more likely to you? john madden going on and on about how good brady is and how the patriots are football par excellence or is more likely to be singing the praises of vikings defense. i'll take tom brady thank you very much.

bonus bets
$50 - KC
$25 - PHI
$50 - Ten-Hou over

$10 underdog parlay - SFO/NYG/ARI
$5 wild ass parlay - ne/ten-hou over/no/car/ind/sd

3 comments:

alfredo said...

hou - gimme points.
PHI - sooner or later philly has to just hang one on somebody.
atl - i feel like the atl has been screwing me all year, so i'll roll with them here.
NYG - i think vegas is begging you to take the points here. i stayed away from this one in real life. tampa bay's been beating the spread like crazy, but do you really want to roll with gradowski on the road? then again, this is a classic letdown game for the giants. stay away.
CHI - look for chicago to just pile on.
GB - as if favre-leinart is actually interesting.
KC - the line's 6, Bob. i'll lay the points anyway.
NO - i'd be worried if this were in baltimore, but i would still expect the saints to be favored. i thought this line was way too low, which should worry me, but sometimes you just have to go with it. incidentally, the greatest part of the saints conspiracy is when they go to the super bowl and everyone's headline is something like: saints go marching in...to the FREAKING SUPER BOWL. creative.
stl - that seems like too many points. st louis should be able to keep up with san diego. this would actually be a good money line bet.
pit - i don't even know who's playing quarterback, but it doesn't matter.
CLE - it's a trap.
ind - give me the points, i guess.
CAR - fuck tony romo, fuck drew bledsoe, fuck bad boy as a staff, record label, and as a motherfucking crew.
ne - i really like the madden-brady lovefest angle, except this is the sunday night game, not monday. the logic is absolutely bulletproof, though.

alfredo said...

also, give me indy over DEN.

ne/min: monday not sunday, but you get the idea.

$25 PHI
$50 KC
$50 NO
$25 Stl
$25 CAR

$10 - KC/NO/PHI/CHI
$10 - CIN/StL/KC
$10 - pit/CAR/ne
$5 - ne/CAR/NYG/ind
$5 - CHI-sf OVER/KC-sea UNDER/NO-bal UNDER/CLE-nyj OVER

Erik said...

Bob, it's simple. You need me. I've shown such clear dominance over both you and Fredo that this blog was in danger of utter irrelevance while I was away. But, I'm happy to continue picking for you -- just drop the games for the weeks that I missed. You're welcome.

TEN over hou - I see no reason why the #32 defense does anything, even to Tennessee.

PHI over jax - only because Leftwich is out

CIN over atl - but I'm scared of picking here, both of these teams define the opposite of me: inconsistent

NYG over tam - I'm with you, bob, no way tam covers

CHI over sfo - there's no way you can convince me that sfo scores more than 0 points in this one

ari over GB - Arizona's defense actually looked good against chicago, but then again they let Oakland score like 40 points, right? whatever.

sea over KC - I think the Seahawks defense will be OK against the 3rd stringer, especially if the line is 6

NO over bal - spooky how easily the saints win in NO.

stl over SD - no merriman, no way they stop a rams team that has defined my picking ability: quietly consistent

pit over OAK - charlie batch.

CLE over nyj - what the hell

DEN over ind - why are both of you so in love with Peyton? I can't wait to see him get picked to shreds

CAR over dal - yeah, good luck with this one, guys.

ne over MIN - bob's logic is bulletproof.