all you need to know is that fredo and i are two different ships headed in the opposite direction. after the last two weeks, i'm at 63-74-6 (.460), while fredo is at 78-59-6 (.569). even worse, in the money betting, i blew everything in a series of ill-advised bets and i'm down to $0.00. so we'll have to make up some new rules so that i can keep betting. fredo on the other hand actually, won 50 bucks two weeks ago, but he blew it all this past weekend, despite hitting a 5 team parlay. he's sitting on $1110 for the year, (-310 on the year). erik sucked as much as i did and went 6-10 last week and he forgot to play the week before. anyways, in that matchup, i'm 38-45-5 (.458) and erik is 39-43-5 (.476). whatever, he's still an effing a-hole. on to the picks, numbers from caesar's and home team in caps.
KC (-9) over oak (o/u - 35)
umm, i know i shouldn't leave that many points on the table, but i just heard that they're putting aaron brooks back in. this fact really pisses me off because i didn't know this when i made my real life pool picks. damn you art shell. you give black coaches everywhere a bad name.
ind (-1) over DAL (o/u - 49)
as much as it pains me to pick against the good guys, the simple fact is that even with romo playing at a pretty decent level, he is no peyton manning, who is seriously playing quarterback better than i've ever seen in my whole life. seriously, there's just no question that he's the MVP right now. the other thing is that i would have to believe that dallas is a serious contender to think that they might win. and unfortunately, i don't.
cin (+3.5) over NO (o/u - 52)
lord knows why i'm taking the bengals, as they've kinda screwed me the last two weeks. but here's how i see it. their season basically ended with that crazy loss to the chargers last week. the pressure is off, they have something to prove, and they'll play well against a saints team that has basically overachieved all year. dammit, i hate my reasoning, yet another pick in my real football pool that i don't feel good about.
CLE (+3.5) over pit (o/u - 37.5)
i'm not fooled by last week's steeler's win. the browns are going to be frisky the rest of the season, so i'll just go with the home dog here.
ten (-13) over PHI (o/u - 43.5)
i don't feel good about this one either. i know it's a gigantic number, but it seems to me that philly is one of the teams that consistently takes care of business against the crappy teams in the league. but just too many points.
atl (+3.5) over BAL (o/u - 41)
my falcons pick are simply based on the idea that michael vick totally kicks ass some weeks and then just sucks in others. i think he'll be good after being bad last week.
CAR (-7) over stl (o/u - 44.5)
the panthers seem to always be a late season team and starting in the second half of last night's monday night game, i thought they looked great. like a real threat to win the NFC. julius peppers is simply unreal. and i'll think he'll cause all sorts of problems for bulger and company.
HOU (-2.5) over buf (o/u - 36)
dammit, we took the bills in the pool too.
GB (+6) over ne (o/u - 45)
i know people have said this before, but the pats look to be in pretty bad shape. i just don't see how this team can do more than win a wild card game.
was (+3) over TAM (o/u - -33)
in probably one of the worst matchups of all time, jason campbell faces off against bruce gradowski. so this one will probably be playing here in santa barbara.
chi (-6) over NYJ (o/u - 38)
people are overreacting to the jets beating the patriots last week. remember folks the patriots are in serious trouble so they're not as good as people think. therefore beating the patriots is also not as good as people think. give me lovie smith, the sure fire coach of the year over eric mangini, yet another completely overrated belichick disciple.
MIA (-3.5) over min (o/u - 33.5)
seriously, what the hell happened to the vikings. for the first month of the season, i thought they looked great. now they've lost to the niners and the packers in consecutive weeks. another one i wish i could change in real life.
det (+2) over ARI (o/u - 45.5)
you figure that this is good as any week where the cards get it together. but i can't take the cards for anything less than +5.
SFO (+5.5) over sea (o/u - 43)
no real logic here, just a feeling about the dog here.
sd (+2) over DEN (o/u - 42.5)
i hate picking against denver at home, but i love picking against jake the snake against the greatest TCU running back ever.
JAX (-3.5) over nyg (o/u - 38.5)
what the hell have the giants done to make me think that they won't get killed on the road? i'll tell you what, not a goddammed thing.
ok, for the money thing, we'll just do the jeopardy thing and say that i can't wager more than 100 bucks a week until i'm back in the black.
so i'll try fifty bucks on indy and since i have to catch up i'll try some crazy parlays
$10 5 team - SD/IND/ind-dal under/hou-buf over/CHI
$10 5 team - SD/DAL/ind-dal under/hou-buf over/CHI
$15 6 team - SD/IND/ind-dal under/hou-buf over/CHI/JAX
$15 6 team - SD/DAL/ind-dal under/hou-buf over/CHI/JAX
this doesn't make any sense, but since i'm just making rules up at this point, i don't care anymore. i'm terrible at handicapping football.