11.22.2006

bobby the gook season 3, week 12

hoy cow, we are getting down to the stretch run and last week i think told us a lot about how things are going to turn out for our overall picks. in terms of picks, it was mega-status quo week as both fredo and i went 8-8 and therefore no change in how far apart we are. erik, who let his girlfriend pick his games went 7-9. i guess he was doing that bit where the radio talk show host will let his dog pick or something. in this case, erik's GF is the dog. way to go erik! anyways, after losing everything in a fit of wildass betting last week, i nailed two big parlays, one 10 dollar five team for +200, and even better a 15 dollar six team parlay for 600 bucks. fredo on the other hand went with quantity instead of quality and ended up losing 20 bucks. i'm still far away, but come on, i won 800 bucks on two parlays! give it up for me! anyways, here are the standings.

Bob vs. Fredo
Playa
season record
Winning Pct.
Vegas Round
+/-
Bob71-82-6(.464)
$625
-$795
Fredo86-67-6
(.562)
$1090
-$330

Bob vs. Erik
Playa
season record
Winning Pct.
Bob
46-53-6
(.465)
Erik
46-52-6
(.469)

how do ya like my table skills? anyways, on to picks, numbers from caesar's, home teams in caps.

mia (-2.5) over DET (o/u - 39)
yeah, i know that detroit has the thanksgiving game advantage, but after losing to the cardinals last week, i'm never ever going to take the lions in the matt millen era. erik, you're team is continuing to be the laughing stock of the NFL. i feel bad for you at this point. oh well, at least you have the tigers.

tb (+11) over DAL (o/u - 39)
SEASON IS BACK ON! seriously, last week's win over the undefeated manning colts is one of the best wins in franchise history. i fully willing to admit that i was wrong on romo. he's got a little something and maybe the cowboys won't win the super bowl this year, i think that they're going to be stable at QB for a couple of years now, which it really hasn't been since troy aikman, NFL quarterback retired. given that, i'm just not going to leave 11 points on the table.

KC (-1) over den (o/u - 38)
this one makes me nervous, but have i ever mentioned that jake plummer is the devil? shanahan has screwed himself by not going to cutler earlier, cuz if he makes the switch now, there's no way that denver can win the division or make a deep playoff run. rookie quarterbacks, just can't do that.

jax (-3) over BUF (o/u - 36)
i'm going to end up regretting this, i just have trouble with the jags. i think they'll build on last week's win, while buffalo has had their moment in the sun by covering the spread with a minute left.

NYJ (-5.5) over hou (o/u - 39.5)
not that i like the jets, cuz i don't, but i don't like the texans on the road even more.

BAL (-2.5) over pit (o/u - 38)
nice little run that the steelers put together, but i can't imagine it lasting against a quality team. the ravens have been looking alot better since billick took over the play calling.

cin (-3) over CLE (o/u - 43)
i really think this line should be a lot bigger so it worries me a little bit, but the carson-CJ show has been quite impressive, and i don't see it slowing down against a less than mediocre browns team.

MIN (-6.5) over ari (o/u - 38.5)
again, i don't like the cards on the road. min may be tanking their season, but i just can't bring myself to take the cards this season.

STL (-6.5) over sfo (o/u - 44.5)
middle of the road teams will win home division games against other middle of the road teams. and i refuse to believe that the niners are better than middle of the road.

no (-3) over ATL (o/u - 48)
even though we saw bad vick last week, i think the saints will get it together if for no other reason than the NFL wants to keep its feel good story of the year going.

car (-4) over WAS (o/u - 36)
good luck to jason campbell, without clinton portis, and against julius peppers. i forsee defensive touchdowns in this game.

IND (-9.5) over phi (o/u - 44)
what's more likely, that the eagles rally around jeff garcia to send indy reeling to two consecutive losses, something they haven't done in over two years? or that indy blows the eagles out of the water. give me the latter.

TEN (+3) over nyg (o/u - 42.5)
last week, after the cowboys won and the eagles lost, i was extremely happy about the way the NFC east was shaping up, because everytime i see the giants play, i see nothing even remotely special about this team. they really showed it on monday night, and i think that this is the week that the cowboys seize the division.

oak (+13.5) over SD (o/u - 43)
of course, i don't think the raiders are going to win, but the rule is to take big dogs.

SEA (pk) over gb (o/u - 45)
this line is off at most places, as no one knows if hasselbeck is ready to go. if he's not, i might be really tempted to go the other way with the packers, but since most reports are saying he'll be ready, we'll stick with the hawks for now.

i need to think about my money bets, so i'll post them as a comment later. have a great thanksgiving everyone.

3 comments:

alfredo said...

miami - fuck you, erik.
tb - comedown game for dallas.
KC - jake plummer.
BUF - jags on the road suck.
NYJ - i guess.
pit - i am picking against baltimore for the rest of the year.
cin - trap?
ari - cards keep it close.
sfo - yes, bob, but in divisional games take the dog.
ATL - atlanta is (-3) by the way. i assume you still want new orleans.
car -his seems too easy.
IND - has indy had a big blowout this season? if not, this should be the first.
TEN - eli manning is murdered by his teammates at halftime.
oak - i am staying disciplined and just taking the big number, especially in a letdown game in the division.
SEA - seattle at home.

Erik said...

OK, enough of letting HL pick -- and I'd like to think that stunt is a bit more like the Dr. Z vs. the Supermodel series over at that other well respected sports website. HL even looks a bit like Dr Z.

Also, thanks for finally updating the results in tabular form, Bob. It was kind of hard to follow the matchups, but now that they appear in rows and columns, delineated by clear lines, it's much easier. Wonderful.

Enough -- here are you take-them-to-the-bank picks, done by yours truly.

mia over DET - fuck me. Joey Harrington runs off at halftime, with Miami up 49-0, by flipping off the crowd and then jizzing in Matt Millen's fat mouth.

tb over DAL - I'm starting to believe in Romo, but not for 11 points. Besides, I think they mail this one in after the huge win on Sunday. Congrats guys. Now to truly be America's Team, the Cowboys have to sack John Cougar Mellencamp's damned "this is our country" shit.

den over KC - this one's on NFL network, right?

BUF over jax - only one of these teams has a defense which hasn't underperformed this year.

NYJ over hou - sure

BAL over pit - Roethlesburger could through 9 interceptions, but don't worry, Charlie Batch will still be enjoying some sun chips on the sideline

cin over CLE - ocho cinco

MIN over ari - boo

sfo over STL - who is this Frank Gore and what did he do with the other laughing stock from the Bay?

no over ATL - the saints haven't won in a while

car over WAS - if Carolina can't beat this piece of shit by 5 points, then I seriously will start picking the Lions again.

IND over phi - quick - name three teams that do not have a Lion playing 2nd string qb. why are the Lions the god damned backup quarterback farm system for the entire fucking league?

nyg over TEN - not so fast guys

SD over oak - if LT gets less than 8 touchdowns, I'll eat another piece of pumpkin pie.

SEA over gb - clearly. Did Senaca Wallace ever play for the Lions?

Happy Thanksgiving fellas. Don't forget - Harrington back in Ford Field, tomorrow at 9:30am Pacific.

Erik said...

On the blown call in the chargers raiders game. I haven’t been this mad about the refs since they intentionally torpedoed the Lions’ 2005 season by overturning a 4th quarter game-winning touchdown by Marcus Pollard.

OK – first of all, I’ll temporarily can the conspiracy theory stuff about how the NFL wants to keep the Chargers in the playoff race etc etc. A loss to lowly Oakland obviously would have hurt the prestige of Philip Rivers and Ladainian Tomlinson and the team Bob calls the “best in the NFL” a lot, but let’s leave that on the side and focus on the worst call by any ref since last year’s Super Bowl.

It was 4th and about 2, and the Chargers, down 14-7 to the worst team in the NFL, were going for it. Little play action, pass over the middle to wideout Vincent Jackson, who dove and caught the ball while falling to the ground. Great play. He’s got about 10 yards more than he needs for the first down. He gets up, and celebrates his great catch by flicking the football down to the ground. But wait a minute – there hasn’t been a whistle yet! He wasn’t touched while he was on the ground – so that’s a live ball! Oakland’s defender, Fabian Washington, reacts perfectly and falls on the ball. That defender is whistled down after he’s touched by a Charger. The referee on the scene blows the play dead and indicates first down for Oakland at that spot.

This was a huge, huge mistake by Jackson, because now Oakland would have the ball back with a lead and a chance to run the clock down or even score. Thinking that the play was over, Jackson showboated, fumbled, and Fabian Washington made him pay for the mistake. Oakland’s offense was on the field, 1st and 10.

But it was not to be. Before Oakland could snap the ball, out came lead referee Mike Carey (who ordinarily I honestly like more than any other ref). Carey said that, in fact, Jackson had not fumbled. His dropping the ball down to the ground was in fact a “forward pass” because the ball fell forward. And since Jackson was beyond the original line of scrimmage, this was an “illegal forward pass,” not a fumble. That resulted in a 5 yard penalty, but it would still be Oakland’s ball, since after the penalty, the Chargers wouldn’t have enough for the 1st down. Whatever – still Oakland’s ball.

But it was not to be. Yes, you read that right. After making that lengthy explanation to the crowd, Carey spoke to Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer, and then came back out to make yet another ruling. In fact, even after the penalty for the illegal forward pass, now, the Chargers did have enough yardage for the 1st, so the Chargers would retain possession. 1st and 10, Chargers. What. The. Fuck.

A few plays later, touchdown Chargers, it’s 14-14. The Chargers would go on to win, 21-14.

Let’s see how dramatically wrong this call was. So, basically, if this call were correct, it would become nearly impossible to fumble because if the ball falls even a bit forward, then in fact you’ve passed the ball. An illegal forward pass does not look like flinging the ball to the ground in front of you directly at the feet of a defender. That, according to any idiot with eyes, is a dropped ball, or in football jargon, a fumble.

OK, back to conspiracy theorizing. Apparently, Oakland had yet another fumble recovery taken away in the Denver game on the 13th. Randy Moss is right – the world is out to get him.