howdy kids, just got back from seeing borat. solid enough movie, but not life changing by any means. think of it as jackass for the nerds. i give it a B. for whatever reason, however, i get really giggly whenever he pronounces the word anus as ah-NUS. but that's neither here nor there. anyways, it was an interesting week of football last week. because of the screwy relationship that central california has to the northern and southern california markets, i missed the best game in indy/den, but i did get to see the tony romo era get off to a rousing start. am i sold on the kid? not yet for this season, but next year will be the real test to see if the kids got a future as the most important position in the most important professional football franchise in america. seriously, before six years ago, the qb succession line went like this - roger staubach, danny white, troy aikman. good qbs don't come like they used to. anyways, last week, fredo and i pretty much tied, with me going 6-8 and fredo going 7-7. so i didn't make up any real ground, but i didn't lose any ground either. for the season, i'm sitting at 51-58-6 (.468) and fredo is at 63-44-6 (.578). a quick note, previously, i had been calculating the win-loss percentage by including the ties. i don't know why, but i realize that's stupid to count ties as a loss, so the percentages reflect that now. and even still, i'm more than ten percentage points behind fredo. that's a lot of gorund to make up in the next few weeks, but it's not out of reach yet. on the side however, it's still pretty interesting. i made 60 bucks on my bets bringing me to $1298 (-$132 on the year) and fredo ended up with only losing 5 bucks on the strength of a 4 team parlay, bringing him to $1325 (-$95 on the year). however, just to warn you, i'm going to go crazy this week with the money bets so get ready for a big shakeup in that respects.
erik rejoined the game last week and he posted a pathetic 5-9 record. but even better, in our fantasy league, he went from being 20 points up to losing in about the thirty minutes it took to play the fourth quarter of the cowboys game. let me tell you, that was lots of fun to watch with him. anyways, his season record is 33-33-5 (.500) and i'm catching up quickly at 32-35-5 (.478). he sucks. anyways, let's get on with it, numbers from caesar's and home team in caps.
kc (+2.5) over STL (o/u - 48)
herm edwards is telling people that he's going to go with trent green when he's ready to go next week. now i'm not a professional head coach or anything, but why would you do that when damon huard is playing so efficiently. i see big numbers for LJ this week as the chiefs roll in huard's swan song.
cin (+3) over BAL (o/u - 41)
this one doesn't feel great to me, but this is a must win for the bengals. lose and their season is over and nearly any decent team usually wins those games in the NFL. i'm underwhelmed by the bengals (although i did take the preseason under on these guys), but i can see them getting it together against a less than mediocre ravens offense.
hou (+13) over NYG (o/u - 43)
man alive, i'm apparently feeling really frisky taking all of these dogs on the road. i don't know, i hate the giants. i really can't tell with this big a number. i find that houston and the giants are tough teams for me to figure out, so i'm just gonna take the points.
ten (+9.5) over JAX (o/u - 37.5)
let's just keep the crazy train rolling with another road dog. i thought about this one alot and even though the jags look alot better with garrard under center, what i've seen from the titans is more than what i expected. maybe they don't win this game, but i just have a hunch that they make a game out of this.
dal (-3) over WAS (o/u - 41)
look, no one is happier that tony romo doesn't suck worse than say, jp losman. and to prove it, i'm going to take the boys even though, my usual thinking says that middle of the pack teams lose division games on the road.
gb (+3.5) over BUF (o/u - 40.5)
the question to ask here is why are the bills favored here. perhaps i'm on the wrong side of a trap here, but i can't imagine that anyone thinks that the bills are better than the packers. plus, i get to get back on the road dog crazy train here.
no (-1.5) over TAM (o/u - 38)
back off the train. i have a riddle for you. how many spleens does it take to be a terrible and overrated quarterback? zero. just as well that simms is out for the season, but gradkowski really isn't that much better. and that's saying something when you suck as much as simms did.
atl (-5.5) over DET (o/u - 47)
man i really need to take one of these home dogs here. anyways, michael vick has been making a play to regain my love and sexual desire by throwing 7 touchdowns over the last two weeks, but i gotta be honest with you, wild ass scrambling mike vick is much sexier than accurate pocket quarterback mike vick. something tells me i ought to take the lions here, but i'm willing to give mike vick another chance at my heart.
CHI (-13.5) over mia (o/u - 37.5)
i just read something crazy in bill simmons latest column a while ago. did you know that the dolphins haven't covered all year? 0-7 against the spread! that's just plain crazy. i find that more crazy than going 0-7 in real life. conventional wisdom says that almost every team ends up finishing somewhere around .500 against the spread, but the dolphins on the road against one of the top 3 teams in the NFL? forget it.
SFO (+5) over min (o/u - 42.5)
i'm cheating here a little bit since i originally liked minnesota here. fredo thinks they're overrated which might be true, especially after seeing them get carved up by the patriots last monday night. but the reason i'm taking them is so i can get at least one home dog on my side.
SD (-13) over cle (o/u - 41.5)
do you remember how football coming back to cleveland was such a feel good story? how people said that football "belongs" in cleveland and how the fans "deserve" a team? i'm really beginning to think that resurrecting the browns was a mistake. they've been around for about four years now, and they don't seem any better than they were year one. at least with the texans, i can say that there are a couple of really nice players on the team, but i can't think of one player on the browns that might start on another decent team. i think it's time we seriously consider moving the browns. seriously, why does ohio need two football teams? on a different note, at the beginning of the year before all the fantasy drafts, i was telling anyone who would listen that even though the conventional wisdom was the draft order should be 1. LJ, 2. shaun alexander, 3. LT, that LT is probably still the best player out of those three. johnson has come on in the past few weeks but LT has been consistently studly for about every week for about two years now.
den (+3) over PIT (o/u - 37)
everything about this line screams "trap". yet i can't bring myself to take the steelers. their season is over and i think the broncos will rebound after last week's tough loss. and seriously, the whole shanahan boggling fantasy owners minds with his running back workload distribution is pure evil genius. i hereby do solemnly swear that for the rest of my fantasy career, i will never ever draft a shanahan coached running back. if you're in vegas though, take the steelers. one more thing, fredo pointed out to me last week, how a lot of times in my picks, i have a curious habit of making a really good case for one team, and then just inexplicably taking the other. genius, i know. actually, evil genius, just like shanahan. but seriously, i can't even begin to tell you how this is so obviously a trap.
NE (-3) over ind (o/u - 49)
the line started at 0.5, which is kinda bad news for this pick. however, even though peyton won this game last year, the fact is he's 1-9 against brady and belichick. it's called playing the percentages, it's what good handicappers do. seriously, did you see how the broncos running game gashed the indy defense last week. i predict that both dillon and maroney will top 100 yards this week and i predict that it will only take maroney 10-12 carries to get there. do you hear that sound? i think that's the new england train pulling into the station again, and i don't want to miss it.
SEA (-7.5) over oak (o/u - 37)
yeah....i'm not going to get suckered in by the raiders. so don't you either. although it is seneca wallace and maurice morris starting for the seahawks....they can't be that bad though.
crazy betting time!
$100 - CHI
$100 - NE
$50 - KC-STL over
$25 - CHI-MIA over
$25 - SD
$25 parlay - CHI/NE/SD
$10 parlay - KC-STL over/CHI-MIA over/GB/DAL
$5 parlay - NE-IND under/SD-CLE over/GB-BUF under/DAL/CHI/NE <- this is so ridiculous.
your move alfredo, your move.