12.01.2006

bobby the gook season 3, week 13

last week, in our real-life pool, the guy in charge did a real douchebag thing and changed from picking against the spread to having to pick winners. as a result, fredo and i got effed in the a, as we only got 8 games, while picking against the spread both of us got at least 10. the only reason i bring this up is that picking against the spread is an entirely different animal from picking winners. conventional wisdom would say that picking winners is easier than against the spread, but we've gotten so good at picking against the spread, picking winners seems like just a foreign thing to me these days, hence explaining our poor performance in the real life pool. anyways, last week, i went 10-5 and fredo went 11-4, so no real change in the standings. although fredo did pick the thursday night game correctly, while i sucked the big one and picked the freakin' ravens. erik went 10-5 as well, so no real change this week in those standings and got the cinci game right as well. a couple of things about this week. fredo says that football outsiders say that blowouts are much more likey in weeks 1-4 and in weeks 13-17, so seemingly, taking the dog with a lot of points in not as safe as it was last week. we both skipped out on the money betting, and seeing how it was thanksgiving and all, let's just call last week a holiday and we'll just start the money betting again. second, this is the last week of the regular season for both of my fantasy leagues. i need to win in both leagues to make the playoffs, so needless to say, it's a big football weekend for me. anyways, here are the standings.

Bob vs. Fredo
Playa
season record
Winning Pct.
Vegas Round
+/-
Bob81-88-6(.479)
$625
-$795
Fredo98-71-6
(.574)
$1090
-$330

Bob vs. Erik
Playa
season record
Winning Pct.
Bob
56-59-6
(.487)
Erik
57-57-6
(.500)


home team in caps, and point spreads from caesars.

CHI (-9.5) over min (o/u - 35)
i hate leaving this many points on the table, but after chicago's first loss, they rebounded well. and what do the vikings have? i really need rex grossman to do well if i'm to have any chance in fantasy as well.

tb (+7.5) over PIT (o/u - 41)
seriously, big ben has been playing worse than leftwich and vick combined, yet nobody is calling him a coach killer. i wonder why. anyways, i'm just following the rule that when you don't have a good idea, take the points.

ari (+6.5) over STL (o/u - 46)
seriously, matt leinart is playing really well, as i predicted at the beginning of the season. the rams' defense sucks just enough to let matt leinart start his legacy as captain comeback here.

ind (-7.5) over TEN (o/u - 46.5)
i was pretty impressed by vince young last week. it was hard to say how good he would be in the NFL, but if we see anything resembling his fourth quarter in this game, i think it is safe to say that he'll be pretty good. that being said, everyone and their mom is taking the titans because of last week and because they nearly beat the colts last time out. so i'm inclined to go the other way.

MIA (-1) over jax (o/u - 35.5)
with as well as they've been playing, why would anyone pick against the dolphins at this point. why would anyone take the jags for that matter. what a pretender the jags turned out to be.

NO (-7) over sfo (o/u - 46)
the saints on the other hand seem to be legit after all. the niners are the trendy pick here, so that is why i'm inclined to take the saints again here. however, i'd stay away if i were you.

atl (+1) over WAS (o/u - 38.5)
man i sure am taking a lot of road dogs. not a good philosophy. anyways, after winning the game on an electrifying 64 yard touchdown run, mike vick is going to unveil his new touchdown dance, where warrick dunn stands behind michael vick to make it look like he has four arms and hands and then they'll proceed to flip four birds to the crowd, thereby outdoing his bird flipping performance of last week. on the serious tip, it kinda galls me to hear everyone talk about how michael vick just can't win in the NFL. if your offensive coordinator can't put together an offense that takes full advantage of one othe best athletes of this century, then your problem isn't your quarterback. anyways, just taking the points here.

kc (-5.5) over CLE (o/u - 35.5)
i really want to take another home dog at some point, but not here. seriously, what does anyone see in charlie frye?

NE (-13.5) over det (o/u - 41.5)
back and forth on this one. i don't know, a lot of points, but i just feel like detroit has been screwing me all year.

dal (-3.5) over NYG (o/u - 43.5)
it's kinda weird, i feel like the giants and the cowboys have switched positions from the beginning of the year. for the giants, they were winning at the beginning of the year and everything was going great, whereas it was all T.O. all the time for the cowboys as they struggled early. now the cowboys are winning and no one even batted an eye when owens said that he thought cutting vanderjagt was a bad idea, and granted they're in new york, but there can't be enough things wrong with the giants ship right now. i might be jinxing this, but i'm pretty sure that the cowboys are going to roll here. the only thing that makes me nervous is that this is a must-win emotion game for the giants, and in football, those always seem to go the way of the desperate team.

oak (-3) over HOU (o/u - 35.5)
i have nothing to say about this game except that david carr is officially a bust. the texans seriously need to be contracted. houston doesn't deserve an NFL franchise.

sea (+4) over DEN (o/u - 40.5)
i know nothing about jay cutler except that he can't be worse than jake plummer. but that's really not saying much now is it. it's weird that people are saying that denver has to play cutler if denver is going to have any chance to win the super bowl. unless jay cutler is the next coming of johnny unitas, denver never had a chance in the first place.

car (-3) over PHI (o/u - 37.5)
i hate this pick because i'm pretty sure that the panthers are pretenders in this thing. the eagles for all intensive purposes have shut things down for this season, and this is a must win for the panthers so i'll think they win, but the panthers look like a wild card loser if i ever saw one.

bonus betting
$50 on chi-min over
$50 on dal-nyg under

$10 3 team parlay - dal/chi/kc
$10 3 team parlay - nyg/chi/kc
$10 4 team parlay - oak/sea/chi/kc
$10 4 team parlay - oak/sea/min/kc

5 comments:

Erik said...

i'm killing you, Bob. Fredo, you're next.

min over CHI - too many points, too many players named Rex thowing too many picks

PIT over tb

ari over STL

ind over TEN

MIA over jax

NO over sfo

WAS over atl - the crowd flips off Vick this time

kc over CLE

NE over det - i'm never taking the lions in the Millen era as long as I live

dal over NYG

oak over HOU

sea over DEN

car over PHI

alfredo said...

Min-CHI (-9) – Chicago. I know that this goes against our big number rule, but I can’t get behind that offense in the cold against the bears. Also, this is a good week for grossman to be good again against the 2nd worst pass D.

TB-PIT – Pittsburgh. I think my AFC/NFC rule prevails here.

Ari-STL – Arizona . Underdog and Leinart pulls them close late.

Ind-TEN – Tennessee. Home-dog/divisional game.

Jax-MIA – Miami. Momentum and Jax has been shit on the road.

SF-NO – San Fran. Not too sure here. I initially liked them quite a bit, but the back-to-back road games bothers me.

Atl-WAS – Atlanta . I say they play better away from the home pressure. They’re a disaster, though.

KC-CLE – Cleveland . When in doubt…I am reluctant here, though. It seems like everyone is picking Cleveland and that makes me nervous.

NYJ-GB – NYJets. This line moved from GB+3 to +1. Let’s go against that with the AFC/NFC logic.

Det-NE – NE. I know, I know, but I am sticking to my AFC/NFC rule and am refusing to take Detroit again this season.

SD-BUF – Buffalo . Home-dog, bad weather, SD due for a letdown.

Dal-NYG – Giants. Jinx theory.

Hou-OAK – Houston …we have an underdog.

Sea-DEN – Seattle. I just can’t get behind the rookie QB in his first start. Plus, this is the underdog and this week’s only exception to the AFC/NFC rule.

Car-PHI – Carolina in a horrible Monday night game.

alfredo said...

Bob-what about SD-BUF and nyj-GB?

Min $20
PIT $40
NYJ $100
BUF $20
NE $100
Car $100

$20 NE/MIA/BUF/nyj
$10 SF/Ari/Ind/Jax
$10 Min/Cle/TEN/NYG/Hou
$10 CHI/NE/KC/Atl/SD
$20 Det/GB/Min/STL
$10 tb-PIT UNDER/ind-TEN UNDER/SF-NO UNDER

Bob said...

sorry, i don't know what my problem is.

sd (-6) over BUF (o/u - 42.5)
no reason to not take the chargers here.

nyj (pk) over GB (o/u - 41.5)
sports illustrated cover jinx for brett favre.

Bob said...

it's a little late, but i can vouch that erik got these in on time. erik takes BUF and nyj.