12.06.2006

bobby the gook season 3, week 14

for all intensive purposes, this season is over. fredo has demolished me and currently holds a 21 game lead over my sorry ass. what can i say, i'm just not a good gambler anymore. which is just as well. this was the first fall in about 5 years where i didn't make a couple of trips to vegas, so i guess if i want to look on the bright side, i saved a whole lot of money on car insurance, i mean gambling debts. anyways, last week was pretty emblematic of my whole season. i went a slightly less than mediocre 6-9, while fredo simply shined with an 11-4 record. so fredo, like dirk diggler in boogie nights, "you've got the touch!"*. erik on the other hand, is showing his true idiot colors as he managed to go 5-10. what a loser! in the money round, i actually had an ok day as i won sixty bucks on the strength of my two over under bets (nailed it!). fredo with his crazy ass betting almost did ok. as i was adding up his bets, at one point he was up $140, but after all was said and done, he was -$70 on the week. however, i should mention that fredo hit a three leg over/under parlay, so mad props to fred for that. anyways, here are the standings.

Bob vs. Fredo
Playa
season record
Winning Pct.
Vegas Round
+/-
Bob87-97-6(.473)
$685
-$735
Fredo108-76-6
(.592)
$1020
-$400

Bob vs. Erik
Playa
season record
Winning Pct.
Bob
62-68-6
(.477)
Erik
62-67-6
(.481)

as you can see, erik is hanging on by the slimmest of margins. i suspect if he had picked the game that he missed, we'd be tied right now. seriously, major league A-1 certified loser. anyways, on with the show, home team in caps, and numbers from caesars.

PIT (-7) over cle (o/u - 33)
is it possible that the browns can cover two weeks in a row, and even more importantly, can they do it on the road? hines ward is still out, but receiver ain't the problem. seriously, has there ever been a super bowl team that has been this bad the next season. i blame terry bradshaw.

bal (+3) over KC (o/u - 36)
this line seems weird to me, especially how good the ravens are against the run. trent green had a nice game last week, but seriously, eff him. there's no way i think he can do it two weeks in a row.

ATL (-3.5) over tb (o/u - 38)
i really should roll with the home dog here, but i feel that atlanta has been really good on the road. i think that the falcons seize control of the wild card race here. and then after the game, mike vick goes to mons venus and gives all the dancers herpes after the game.

min (+1.5) over DET (o/u - 38.5)
how in the world did detroit pull last week's performance out of their ass? i mean sure they ended up blowing it and losing, but they more than covered the spread of 13.5 points. that really was too many points, and i'm an idiot for not taking them last week. that said, there's just no way in hell that i would take the lions as a favorite. and erik is a loser.

ten (+1.5) over HOU (o/u - 41.5)
this lines perplexes me. the titans beat one of the best teams in the NFL and yet their dogs at the freakin' texans. trap? i don't know, i'm just a caveman. i don't understand your complicated games of chance. but what i do know is that my fantasy team is about to ride vince young to a league championship. seriously, vince young looks to me like he's starting to figure out this NFL. he has the air of a super bowl doug williams about him, where everything he does just turns to gold.

nyg (pk) over CAR (o/u - n/a)
this line is off the board everywhere i've checked. i'm not really sure what is going on, but in a battle of extremely mediocre teams that are fighting for a playoff spot, i'll take the giants. i just think that they're going to end up at the wildcard, if for no other reason just to piss me off for the season as i am forced to care about the outcome of giants game for the sake of the cowboys winning the division. which leads us to....

DAL (-7) over no (o/u - 47.5)
for those of you who haven't seen the highlights, at the end of the game, with the score tied and time running out and deep in giants territory, romo takes the snap, scrambles left to avoid the rush, and then throws the most perfect 40 yard pass to jason witten who had one step on the corner and had the safety bearing down on him. it was in all seriousness, the definition of the perfect pass. i turned to erik and said, "that is a major league throw". it got me thinking about which qb's that are currently in the NFL that have a good chance of making that same throw. this is the list that i came up with in order of probability of making that play: tom brady, donavan mcnabb, carson palmer, drew brees, mike vick. and those last two are reaches. the point is, of course it is too early to anoint tony romo the next tom brady. but i simply cannot see how anyone can look at this kid and not think that he's going to be a really good qb.

buf (+4) over NYJ (o/u - 37)
eric mangini may be the next nick saban in that he is the coach that everyone refuses to say might not be good. one win against the packers and pundits are all penciling the jets in for a playoff spot. i'm not buying.

ind (-1.5) over JAX (o/u - 44)
the jags are the desperate team here, so beware, but i just don't think it is possible for a team like the colts to lose 3 out of 4.

WAS (+1) over phi (o/u - 40)
andy reid is another coach who is regularly fellated by writers and tv people. i'm not saying he's bad, but in at least two of the four NFC championship games, he was badly outcoached. they beat a terrible panthers team and everyone wants to say how reid is keeping things together. not that washington is great or anything, but this seems like a good place to take the home dog.

oak (+11) over CIN (o/u - 40)
lesson learned, not taking favorites for more than 10 points again.

MIA (+3.5) over ne (o/u - 37)
i'm not saying that i think that the patriots suck. they're pretty good this year, but clearly, they've regressed from their salad days. in years past, this was a game that you were absolutely sure that the pats would take care of business, but they've lost a couple of games like that already this season, and this seems like another case where this happens again.

gb (+4) over SFO (o/u - 44)
remember in the nineties when this was a great freakin' game? me neither. the crazy thing is that brett favre was the quarterback then as well. ughhh, gimme the points.

sea (-3.5) over ARI (o/u - 45.5)
i don't know about this one so i should take the points, but i just feel that i might be getting sucked in by the cards beating a crappy rams team last week.

SD (-7.5) over den (o/u - 42.5)
it's a pretty big spread, but jay cutler on the road against a real good defense? forget it. by the way, i was so freakin' right about him. fredo brought up a good point in that he went to freakin' vanderbilt. how could anyone think that this was going to work out this season.

chi (-6.5) over STL (o/u - 40.5)
i have rex grossman on both of my fantasy teams. he has screwed me in so many different ways this year that i'm actually starting to question my sexuality. so like i said, i'm playing vince young in my playoff game with erik, the biggest loser of all time, so naturally, grossman is going to throw for three TDs and 400 yds on monday night.

it's late, so i'll get my money picks in a little later. go cowboys!

* i've never really noticed it before, but john c. reilly really turns in a fantastic performance during the recording session scenes of boogie nights.

11 comments:

Erik said...

we'll see how long this "losing" streak lasts. at least you have this little blog game to hold on to. After all, in the fantasy playoffs this week, I'm going to do to your sorry fantasy team what I usually do to vietnamese gutter whores.

here's just Thursday's pick for now -- i'll get the rest in soon.

cle over PIT - isn't Polamalu out, too? I think as long as Ben and not Batch is at the helm, Pit is going nowhere.

alfredo said...

for tonight:

Pittsburgh. I was going to say Cleveland until both of you did.

This fantasy football season was pure horseshit, by the way. how can i have the 2nd most points and miss the playoffs? fucking bullshit, that's how.

Erik said...

Good lord Cleveland really is the mistake by the lake.

OK - ALL of these picks are as 100% money as my decision to start Ciatrick Fason in the Fantasy Playoffs:

bal over KC - clearly even with T Green, the ravens are good enough here.

ATL over tb - this time Big Boi and Andre 3000 flip off the crowd for not going to see Idlewild

min over DET - did you see the latest drunk driving story out of the Lions defensive unit? At least he wasn't naked this time.

ten over HOU - but I smell a...

nyg over CAR - Delhomme is probably out, that's why there's no line anywhere and why the most disappointing team since the 2005 Lions will lose big here

DAL over no - listen. Romo is not baby Jesus. Did you see Dr. Z's analysis? He charts good passes vs. bad passes when games are competitive. A bad pass is defined as one that is a bad decision and/or poorly thrown. Some INT's are bad passes, some (like when the WR tips or drops the ball) aren't. An amazing QB will throw maybe 1 bad pass in a game. In a decent game, Dr. Z says, good QB's throw maybe 3 or 4. Tony Romo, in the game with the brilliant pass to Witten (which was awesome), threw something like 6. All that to say: Romo has been really, REALLY lucky so far. And all that to say, with the injuries in NO, there's no reason Dallas can't win here at home. Dammit I should be researching or something but it just took me 45 minutes to write one effing pick.

NYJ over buf - Bob, the Jets have won more games in the last 4 weeks than Tony Romo has in his entire career - what's wrong with you?

JAX over ind - Peyton hates being outside, and this defense has his number.

phi over WAS - mainly because MR. Jeff Garcia is the best fantasy option for my team this week.

oak over CIN - please someone make somebody look worse than the Lions

ne over MIA - yeah, Joey Harrington is no Tom Brady.

SFO over gb - Gore will Score!

sea over ARI - Leinart is even less baby Jesus than Romo. I sense about 3 picks here.

SD over den - here's the thing. San Diego is giving up like 21 points per game in the last 3 weeks. And with McCardell and Gates either out or at 50%, they should be in trouble. But rookie QB's = massive turnovers = Jake Plummer, so essentially I'm picking against the Snake here. I like it.

chi over STL - who needs a QB when you've got the Bears defense? I say they just direct snap to Thomas Jones all night.

About fantasy, Fredo, I know how you feel. After all, I was the top point scorer in 2004, but due to bad scheduling, I somehow ended up only making 3rd place. At least I'm still the people's champ. Eff this league.

alfredo said...

Atl-TB (+3.5) – Atlanta keeps rolling away from home.

Bal-KC (-3) – Baltimore. When I pull a final score out of my ass, I keep getting KC by one point. I feel pretty certain that KC is a much better team at home, but then again they nearly blew one at home against the Raiders and their borderline great defense. It seems like a lot of people are picking KC here. I say Baltimore at least keeps it closer than 3.

Min-DET (+2.5) – minnesota? Crap I’m pretty torn on this one. I’d love a loss since that would guarantee at least a push on my under 8 wins season bet on the vikes. I guess this is a classic matchup of minnesota’s crap offense against detroit’s crap defense. I guess go with the dog in the divisional game. Minnesota. Fuck.

Ten-HOU (-1.5) – Tennessee. It looks like a trap, but whatever, Tennesse’s rolling right now.

Nyg-CAR (pk?) – NYGiants. I’m done getting fucked by Delhomme.

No-DAL (-7) – Dallas. I think that they are just a lot better (especially on defense) than new Orleans. NO’s bullshit Cinderella crap stops Sunday night, and Tony Romo is crowned king of DFW after the game.

Buf-NYJ (-4) – Buffalo. The dog stays close in divisional matchups.

Ind-JAX(+1.5) – Jax. I think that Jax is getting a lot of upset support in this one, which worries me a little. I felt like they would win this game outright about two weeks ago. Indy cannot stop the run. If Jax sticks to its guns and just plays smart, then they should be sitting on a 3-point lead late in the game. Surely manning doesn’t have another last gasp bullshit win left in him this year. By all rights Indy should have a couple more losses. I say their luck starts to even out here.

Phi-WAS(+1) – I was thinking Philly in a romp, and then I thought that it was too easy…so give me Washington, but I wouldn’t touch this one. (There’s too much being made of the rebirth of Jeff Garcia anyway. Something tells me that after the game, there will be a lot people saying “oh yeah, that’s right – Jeff Garcia still sucks.”)

Oak-CIN(-11) – Cincy is starting to roll and is all set up to kick Oakland in the balls, but that’s a lot of points against a good defense. Letdown, maybe? Haven’t the big point spreads just fucked everyone that lays them all season? Let’s go Oakland.

Ne-MIA (+3.5) – Miami. New england’s been spotty, Miami’s at home, divisional game, and that extra half point looks nice.

Gb-SF (-4) – Green Bay. Just taking the points here.

Sea-ARI (+3.5) Arizona. Home-dog. Besides, I think that Arizona wins this one outright. Seattle’s just another team at this point.

Den-SD (-7.5) San Diego. I’m not getting behind Cutler one the road against a legit team. This could get ugly.

Chi-STL (+6.5) Chicago in a shutout. The rams are imploding, and Chicago’s D should drive Bulger nuts.

Bob said...

erik, dr. z also wrote today,

let me repeat something I wrote one week ago today. I was replying to a question Peter King asked me as to who was my MVP right now. "I thought for a while and said Tony Romo."

i'll take the MVP over baby jesus anyday.

alfredo said...

$200 San Diego
$100 Dallas
$20 Nyg/atl/bal
$20 nyg/atl/KC/ten
$20 KC/Ind/DET
$20 Oak-Cin UNDER/phi-WAS UNDER/nyg-CAR OVER
$20 NYJ/SF/sea/ne
$20 bal-KC UNDER/ten-HOU OVER/buf-NYJ UNDER

Bob said...

$100 Atl
$100 oak/cin over
$100 Ten
$200 NYG

$20 NYG/oak-cin over/Ten
$20 NYG/oak-cin over/Hou
$20 Dal/NYG/Atl/Was
$20 Dal/NYG/Atl/Phi

Erik said...

Wait a minute, Dr. Z said that the MVP is Tony Romo?

I take it all back. I'm never quoting Dr. Z ever again and I'll probably never read anything he writes ever again, either. What a moron.

I can think of 100 guys who deserve the MVP more than Romo, and I'm just a caveman.

OK, maybe not 100, but here's 7:

LT
Drew Brees
LJ
Tiki
Tillman (chicago's amazing kick returner and db)
Brady
Manning

THEN I might consider Romo.

AFter all, I think the MVP should probably play in, oh, I don't know, at least more than 50% of his team's games, wouldn't you think?

Tony Romo: The Most Overhyped Person Since Reuben Studdard

Bob said...

i took the quote out of context. king asked him who he thought the mvp of the last five games was. sorry.

Bob said...

one more thing dumbass, the amazing kick returners name is devin hester.

Erik said...

All right, Dr. Z isn't a total moron, but whatever: Romo is more overhyped than Sorry 2005.