12.20.2006

bobby the gook season 3, week 16

and down the homestretch we come. i tell you, in terms of the whole year, i'm more confused as i've ever been about who the good teams and the bad teams are. here is a list of teams that i think are legitimate contenders to win the super bowl. san diego and chicago, and really, chicago is just a rex grossman meltdown from being a one and done team. every other team may as well be the dillon panthers as far as i'm concerned. while it makes for an exciting end to the season, it sure does make for a bunch of uninspiring possibilities for the playoffs. i mean the eagles are still in this thing, even after losing their best two players from last year. how is this possible? and how is this a good thing? it all just goes to show you that there are probably too many teams in the league right now. i've beat this drum before, but with the realization that the houston texans passed up on reggie bush, i think it's safe to say that their presence along with the browns only hurts the league. can anyone name anything positive that comes with having the browns or the texans. contraction is the best idea for this league right now. anyways, time to step down from my soapbox to inform you that i totally kicked everyone's freakin' ass last week. i went a sterling 12-4 against a tough slate. fredo meanwhile has his first really really bad week of the season and clocked in at 6-10. erik, as usual brought up the rear and finished 4-11. not only did he stink up my blog for another week, he also forgot to pick the ten/jax game. seriously, do i have to keep track of his picks anymore. despite my good week, i'm probably too far behind to catch fredo in the overall standings. however, two things to note. i finally cracked .500 which does wonders for my ego. second and more importantly, i did really well in the vegas round last week winning 450 bucks including a $120 parlay while fredo lost $250. i think this is of interest because if i know my good friend fredo at all, my guess is that we will get to see a flurry of crazy bets and parlays. if there's ever a time where fredo's clutch gambling ability will be tested, it is now. lastly, i'm also close to being even in the vegas round which would also make me and my ego fairly happy after such a lousy start to the season. anyways, here are the current standings.

Bob vs. Fredo
Playa
season record
Winning Pct.
Vegas Round
+/-
Bob110-106-6(.509)
$1355
-$65
Fredo126-90-6
(.583)
$850
-$570

Bob vs. Erik
Playa
season record
Winning Pct.
Bob
85-77-6
(.525)
Erik
75-85-6
(.469)

i'm in texas with the parentals right now, so i'm stuck in dial-up internet access hell. these picks are probably going to really suck since i haven't had any real chance to do any kind of research, but as always, numbers from caesar's, home team in caps.

GB (-3.5) over min (o/u - 37)
it's always good to see a young good looking black quarterback with a cool name like tavarius to get the start for the vikes, but it seems that the packers are playing a little harder in case brett favre dies in the next two games. by the way, i have this theory that the packers are completely unconcerned about winning and are going to do whatever they can do to get brett favre the 8 tds he needs to break marino's record. that way, he'll retire and they can finally start trying to rebuild.

kc (-7) over OAK (o/u - 36)
the chiefs fighting for their playoff lives coupled with an oakland team that has packed it in for the winter spells larry johnson scoring a whole lot. something that is also important about this game is that it is a lot of league's championship week. and i think if you're still alive and have larry johnson going against LT, i think you have a pretty decent chance.

BUF (-4.5) over ten (o/u - 36.5)
i could go either way here. both of these teams seem like they have young qbs that are incrementally figured it out. so i figured i'd just take the home team with the better defense. but on the other hand, i can totally see that vince young got his bad game out of his system last week and they still freaking won. maybe he's got a horseshoe shoved up his ass, but i'd stay away from this one if i were you.

no (+3) over NYG (o/u - 47.5)
strahan is back so that worries me. actually, a lot of things about this game worries me. new orleans has clinched their division and the giants are the desperate team. however, i think that the saints are still gunning hard for that first round bye.

ATL (-6.5) over car (o/u - 42)
with or without weinke, the panthers are hands down the most disappointing team of the year. i heard john clayton say it on sportscenter, "the panthers have lost their identity," which i couldn't have siad better myself. last year, they had a great running game with a game breaking wide receiver and suffocating defense. this year, they're just inconsistent.

was (+2.5) over STL (o/u - 43)
ummmmm...this is another game that i have no idea about so i'll just take the points.

ind (-9.5) over HOU (o/u - 47.5)
i'm really surprised that this line isn't up to 13 or 14 yet. i can't remember the last time the texans covered against the colts.

bal (+3.5) over PIT (o/u - 36)
similar situation to the saints where the ravens have clinched the division and are unlikely to improve on their playoff seeding with the colts and the chargers ahead of them. that said, i don't know if mcnair is going or not. either way, i think that big ben is going to have a bad day against the ravens defense.

tb (+3) over CLE (o/u - 36)
no idea. taking the points.

DET (+4.5) over chi (o/u - 42)
no idea, but i figure that with chicago having sewn up homefield, and with detroit at home, that maybe we have a super low scoring game. seriously, i hate picking games at the end of the season.

ne (+2.5) over JAX (o/u - 37)
don't know about this line, but i freakin' nailed that jags pick last week. anyways, i'll reiterate, the jags are not for real and they probably won't beat the pats who i think are still probably a legit playoff contender.

SFO (-4.5) over ari (o/u - 45.5)
is the NFC west crazy or what. it looks like 8-8 is going to win that division. and with last weeks win over the seahawks, man why wouldn't the niners be the favorite?

cin (+3) over DEN (o/u - 44.5)
i don't like picking against the broncos at home, but did you guys see the bengals game last week. peyton was fantastic in that game. i mean seriously, there was nothing that the bengals could do. jay cutler is no peyton manning.

sd (-5) over SEA (o/u - 46.5)
i waffled on this one a lot. one the one hand, it seems like the chargers are due for a letdown and that the seahawks are a more desperate team. but the chargers still haven't clinched homefield for the playoffs yet, so they'll keep the heat coming. and the seahawks will have blown winning the worst division in football.

phi (+7) over DAL (o/u - 46.5)
i am envisioning a much closer game than vegas does. as i've said before, i fear the eagle. the cwoboys defense hasn't been all that lately, but i think that big bill will get the troops together and get them to play better. but i think that this will be a low scoring affair with the cowboys winning by 4 or 5.

MIA (-2.5) over nyj (o/u - 36.5)
seriously, was there really any need to schedule another christmas day game? whatever.

ok, that's it for now folks. i'll get the money bets in a little later. hope everyone has a nice xmas.

10 comments:

alfredo said...

tonight - GB
$50 GB
$50 under

Erik said...

tonight - min
gotta catch up, and the line moved a bit over the week, so i'm on solid ground here.

Hater said...

just wanted to mention one thing here:

you and fredo are completely wrong about j-cut. all things considered he's playing great. two tds per game with only one pick is pretty damn good for a rookie. he's not losing any games for them and he's actually putting them in a position to win them. he's a huge imrovement on caveman for sure. the only difference is that the defense is playing like junk. if they d had played like they are now early on in the year the broncos would look like the carolina panthers...you guys need to quit jacking off to tony romo and give j-cut a break.

ok thats all. oh yeah--you guys freaking suck at picking games.

Erik said...

All right, I nailed that pick for the piece of crap Vikings. Don't call it a comeback.

Oh, and Hater, calm down. As soon as Denver digs itself out from under two feet of my white stuff, the Broncos will realize that Cutler is no Jon Kitna. How many games has he won? Great QB's will force the D to play better.

All right -- on to the most guaranteed picks in the Eastern time zone:

OAK over kc -- everyone overlooks the oakland D.

BUF over ten - same with Buf

NYG over no - Bob, you always give reasons to pick the other team in your picks.

ATL over car - It's like I said last week, the 2006 Panthers are the most disappointing team since the 2005 Lions.

STL over was - no way Bulger sucks here at home. The rest of his offense might, but Bulger will force the D to play better just like a good QB should.

ind over HOU

bal over PIT

CLE over tb - seriously, what do the Browns contribute to this damn league?

chi over DET - low scoring game or not, I see no reason why the Lions will score more than 2 points here, but I can think of 8 different ways the Chicago D will put up 14.

JAX over ne - I don't know, Florida seems to take the magic out of Tom Brady.

SFO over ari

DEN over cin - Broncos at home - Cincy is no high altitude team, and their D has really stunk it up recently.

sd over SEA

phi over DAL - two words: Jeff Garcia.

nyj over MIA - Harrington simply can't win two holiday games in a row. Sucks for the Dolphins that they can't be at home on both Thanksgiving and Christmas. At least they'll be home for Valentine's Day.

alfredo said...

tonight: kc, though i don't like it too much. oakland's d is very good, but their offense is way, way behind that of every other team. i hate both of these teams.

alfredo said...

oh yeah $50 under tonight

alfredo said...

BUF - the tennessees have to run out of steam at some point, right?
no - last nail in the giants coffin. eli craps himself in front of the home fans. fuck new york.
ATL - i'm not touching weinke.
was - let's go redskins. a rams loss is money in my pocket for the season under bet.
ind - yao ming broke his leg.
bal - this line is so trappy, it's a reverse-trap.
CLE - afc/nfc rule. this game will be a classic, though.
chi - never picking the lions again.
JAX - jinx?
SFO - i'm not touching the arizonas on the road.
cin - cutler's actually ok, but he seems like romo in that opinions are skewed because he happned to replace a worthless loser idiot qb. i hate picking bronco games unless i'm getting points at arizona, so i'll just take the points.
sd - just rolling with the bolts and the afc/nfc rule.
phi - too many points for a divisional matchup.
MIA - harrington throws seven tds, whips it out at midfield as he runs out the clock, and says "suck on this, erik love. suck. on. this."

$50 ind-HOU UNDER
$25 ten/NYG/PIT(just in case)
$25 CLE/chi/ind
$25 no/was/car (underdog special)
$25 cin-DEN OVER/ten-BUF UNDER/tb-CLE UNDER
$10 ATL/STL/ind/bal/CLE/chi/JAX (elove special)
$50 BUF
$50 no
$50 ind
$50 bal
$50 chi
$50 ind

Bob said...

$100 Car
$50 Ind
$100 TB
$50 SD/CIN/SFO
$20 Phi/NE/SD/CAR/CIN
$20 Phi/NE/SD/CAR/DEN
$20 DAL/NE/SD/CAR/CIN
$20 DAL/NE/SD/CAR/DEN

alfredo said...

damit bob, that second indy bet doesn't count.

Bob said...

freakin' seahawks. anyways, even with barely missing my five team parlay, i'm up 370 in the vegas round while fredo is -60. so what the hell, let's see if we can put this thing away.

$50 dal/dal-phi over/mia/mia-nyj under